Interplay of ceasefire: Examining the impact in southern Lebanon

The field reality in southern Lebanon cannot be separated from the ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel.

Iranian Foreign Minister Hussein Amir Abdollahian sought, through his talks in Beirut, to encourage efforts to stabilize and extend the ceasefire. His prominent meeting was with Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah.

This agreement, mediated by Qatar and sponsored by Egypt and the United States, with Iranian involvement due to the strong relationship between Iran and Palestinian factions, confirms that there is no interest for either party to enter into a comprehensive war.

However, what can be expected from Hezbollah, especially after the significant strike by Israel on Wednesday night, assassinating a military group of five members, including Abbas Raad, the son of the head of the Loyalty to the Resistance Bloc, MP Mohammed Raad, in Beit Yahoun?

It is clear that Hezbollah does not deal with the field developments on a personal basis; instead, it leaves it to the field, as its Secretary-General previously emphasized, considering Lebanon to be in a state of war now.

Thus, the group's members were martyred as a result of targeting a military site. Therefore, the response came in a series of attacks on Israeli sites and gatherings of Israeli soldiers, starting from 8:30 in the morning. The retaliation is likely to remain within these limits.

Therefore, the pace of the strikes remains controlled based on a tit-for-tat principle.

However, regarding the scenario of the next phase and the extent of Hezbollah's commitment to the ceasefire, once it comes into effect, concerned Lebanese sources believed that it is natural for the ceasefire to be extended to include Lebanon.

Furthermore, the Hamas movement in Lebanon asserts that any calming of things in Gaza will have repercussions on southern Lebanon and that the developments are being coordinated with Hezbollah.

Therefore, both parties, Hezbollah and Hamas, leave matters open, depending on how the Israeli occupation deals with the Gaza field and the principle of the ceasefire.