'Aging Nation': Analyzing Lebanon's demographic crisis - 2023 vs. 2038

"Welcome to Rafic Hariri International Airport;" In recent years, especially since 2019, at the onset of the economic crisis, Lebanese have heard this call frequently.

According to a study prepared by the Secretary-General of "Citizens in a State," former Minister Charbel Nahas, Lebanon is home to around five and a half million people in 2023. In 2018, the number was approximately 5.8 million.

Out of the 5.5 million, around 3.5 million are Lebanese, and the majority of the rest are Syrians, including residents and refugees, according to the study.

If the economic situation remains challenging, coupled with increasing immigration numbers, Lebanon is heading towards a decrease in the resident population, becoming around 4.8 million in 2038.

The number of Lebanese among them will decrease from 3.5 million to 2.5 million. This means that Lebanese will constitute around 50 percent of Lebanon's population, with the remaining being of other nationalities, mainly Syrians. 

The majority of Lebanese will be in the age group above 64 years, as most below this age will be immigrants.

Additionally, the dependency ratio, i.e., the responsibility of one person for the support of others, will also increase because those who remain in Lebanon are either not working or are elderly. 

The percentage of "dependents" will be 61 percent in 2038, up from 53 percent in 2023.

In conclusion, according to the numbers in this study, Lebanon faces a bleak demographic future. Will anyone heed these figures and take action?