A report by Lea Fayad, English adaptation by Nadine Sassine
The USA is facing off against Iran's oil sector once again.
As a result of recent attacks targeting Israel, the US House of Representatives passed new legislation aimed at expanding sanctions on Iranian oil exports, originally imposed during President Trump's tenure in 2018 due to Iran's nuclear program.
These sanctions will now extend beyond countries and traders to include foreign ships, companies, and refineries involved in the export of Iranian oil. Additionally, they will encompass Chinese and Iranian financial institutions engaged in transactions in this sector.
However, amidst these developments, recent data reveals striking figures: Iran has recorded record-breaking oil exports, reaching levels unseen in over five years. Over 80% of these shipments are destined for China.
This surge in exports comes amid widespread analysis suggesting that unlike the Trump administration, President Biden has been lax in enforcing these sanctions. This leniency is partly to prevent a global rise in oil prices, particularly as Iran is a major oil exporter and a member of OPEC, and partly due to US attempts to improve diplomatic relations with Tehran, a notion Washington has denied.
Given these circumstances, will these new sanctions on Iran's oil sector prove effective?
Most likely not, according to observers.
Firstly, in recent years, Iran-China oil trade networks have evolved, employing sophisticated techniques that are difficult to track, such as ship-to-ship oil transfers at sea and cash payments outside the banking system.
Secondly, because the new legislation requires a 180-day implementation period before taking effect, meaning it won't be enforced until after the next US presidential elections in November. Thus, by the time these sanctions come into play, they may serve as a political game for Biden to play before the elections.