The talk of the head of the Free Patriotic Movement, MP Gebran Bassil, about the possibility of agreeing on other names with Hezbollah for the presidency after the June 14 session constituted the first public signal of his willingness to abandon support for the candidacy of former minister Jihad Azour, in favor of a candidate to be agreed upon.
This article was originally published in and translated from Lebanese newspaper Nidaa al-Watan.
It goes without saying that this is what Bassil aimed for when he "intersected" with the opposition parties, especially the Lebanese Forces, on Azour's name.
Bassil's attack on the Army Commander, General Joseph Aoun, and his talk about "not respecting the laws of public accountability and national defense" in the leadership of the army, and his rejection of the commander's choice for the presidency are all due to backgrounds related to the deliberations between the head of the Free Patriotic Movement and Hezbollah after the "dispute" occurred over the latter's support for the head of the Marada Movement, Sleiman Frangieh.
At a certain stage of the discussion between Bassil and Hezbollah, he was told that he would choose between Frangieh and the army commander, so he also rejected it.
In his call two days ago to agree on a new candidate, on the pretext that the last parliamentary session proved that none of the parties could secure the majority, Bassil anticipates what he fears, that Hezbollah will return and propose the option of General Aoun, and this explains his rejection and the accusations that the Free Patriotic Movement had previously made against him.
Although the information regarding the position of the "Shiite duo" indicates that it is not possible to abandon Frangieh until further notice, and therefore will not leave room for discussing with him the alternative candidate. Whether the army commander or others, Bassil is obsessed with the advent of a president against his will.
This may be because the Qatari side had previously called for a broad understanding of the army commander and tried to convince him of it. Bassil also fears that some of those he intersected with in support of Azour's candidacy will adopt the commander's choice.
Some believe that Hezbollah used the option of the army commander as a "scarecrow" for Bassil to support Frangieh, but the latter opened his campaign against the commander, the new bazaar for understanding on a third candidate, at a time when Hezbollah leaves time and external understandings to crystallize and include Lebanon later, in a game of "biting fingers."
However, Bassil, who realizes that Hezbollah is waiting to resolve the presidential election, registers his desire to reach an understanding with him, disregarding the adherence of those who he intersected with them in support of Azour after the twelfth session.
He is taking precautions for the possibility of a new, international, regional intersection over the army commander, to which the opposition forces may join.
The other side of Bassil's General Aoun's refusal is to solicit offers from Hezbollah and opposition parties alike about the third option if it is proven that the Shiite duo is not about to accept the general, as deputies previously understood from Speaker Nabih Berri.
However, Bassil's maneuver is like a "sword blow in the air" because if an international and regional understanding that includes Iran takes place over the army commander, he cannot stand in his face because Hezbollah favors the balance in this case. At the same time, most opposition forces have no objection to agreeing with him, except for the Change MPs.
As, the opposition and the Change MPs are not enthusiastic about the candidate that Bassil has in mind.
All that light returns to the external movement, not only for the presence of the French Presidential Envoy, Jean-Yves Le Drian, in Beirut, exploring what France can propose, but also because, after his visit, he assumes a station of consultation with the Saudi side, which although it differed in the previous stage from Paris by not engaging in names and neutrality towards them, he agreed with it to support the efforts it is making.
The first point that Le Drian will explore, among many other points, is related to the titles of the settlement that each team sees and the extent to which the two parties are willing to give up their candidates.
After his "reconnaissance" tour, the second stop may be a consultation with the members of the Paris five-party meeting, which includes the US, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Qatar, whose ambassadors met in Beirut.
According to Nidaa al-Watan, the information says that there are no indications of the intention to hold a five-party meeting at a higher level, given the continued divergence between the five countries regarding their respective approaches to the presidential crisis.
Washington, while handing over to France its efforts to achieve a breakthrough that would end the presidential vacuum, disagrees with its entire approach to the solution.
Cairo, preoccupied with its situation and the repercussions of the Sudan war, is cautiously anticipating the effects of the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement, and Qatar, which sometimes utters what is going on in Saudi Arabia's mind and coordinates with it in the details, also has its approach and different mechanisms of action. In other words, the five countries move individually and separately until they reach common denominators.