The call launched by Jean-Yves Le Drian, the former French Foreign Minister and President Emmanuel Macron's envoy to Lebanon, to facilitate dialogue between the heads of parliamentary blocs to resolve the presidential deadlock will be discussed by the "Quintet Committee" (France, the United States, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Egypt) in its meeting on Monday in Doha.
This marks the first attempt to reach a unified vision that paves the way for a political roadmap that Le Drian will carry during his second visit to Beirut, assuming that the main topics have been agreed upon.
Le Drian's participation in the "Quintet Committee" meeting for Lebanon will include the attendance of the accredited ambassadors of the United States, France, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Qatar to Lebanon. This is part of their mission to explore the role of President Macron's envoy, which focused on posing a set of questions to the heads of parliamentary blocs, aiming to build on their responses to prevent further obstruction of the presidential election.
While Macron initiated Le Drian's mission to Beirut without any political conditions set by the "Quintet Committee," the fate of facilitating dialogue between the heads of parliamentary blocs depends on the outcome of the meeting in Qatar.
It will determine the positions of the parliamentary blocs regarding the priority of holding the presidential election as a mandatory prerequisite for engaging in a dialogue led by the elected President. On the other hand, the "Axis of Resistance" (Hezbollah, Amal Movement, and their allies) insists that unconditional dialogue remains the only gateway to resolving the presidential vacuum.
The "Democratic Gathering" led by MP Walid Jumblatt differs in its stance by supporting the dialogue, provided that the election of a consensus president who does not challenge any party's interests is achieved. This stance does not align with Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri's position. After visiting Ain El-Tineh, Jumblatt's son emphasized the disparity in their approaches to the presidential file.
The dialogue within the "Quintet Committee," with Le Drian's presence, starts from the possibility of unifying political visions regarding the presidency.
This came after Paris failed to promote its initiative to end the presidential vacuum by supporting the nomination of Sleiman Frangieh, the leader of the Marada Movement, for the presidency, in return for appointing former ambassador Nawaf Salam as the Prime Minister-designate.
This prompted Macron to send Le Drian to Beirut in an attempt to rescue the initiative after facing opposition from the "Change Forces," with all of their members rejecting any positive interaction since it imposes a president on the Lebanese.
This as sources revealed to "Asharq al-Awsat" newspaper that the French initiative lacked political backing from the "Quintet Committee," according to several US officials who told visiting MPs that Paris went too far in launching its initiative.
The US administration thus warned that it exceeded its mandate by supporting Frangieh's nomination. This situation prevents France from mediating between the parliamentary blocs to end the presidential deadlock, and they must reevaluate their actions.
The sources pointed out that Paris is almost alone in proposing to place the election of the President on the table for dialogue by presenting it as part of a comprehensive political package related to the government, its ministerial statement, and achieving expanded administrative decentralization.
The "Quintet Committee" will stop at what the last election session concluded, where former Minister Jihad Azour made progress against his competitor Frangieh, even if he remained within the negative framework after the "Axis of Resistance" prevented the quorum that hindered the election of the President in the second round.
The sources believe that the "Quintet Committee" has struggled to reach an agreement on a roadmap to rescue the presidential election from turning into a futile circle. This is not solely due to international and regional circumstances not being ripe enough for electing a president but also due to the sharp division among the parliamentary blocs, which have cut off communication and failed to reach a settlement to prevent extending the presidential vacuum for a long time. They say that it is premature to bet on the idea that the chapter of Azour's nomination has been closed and that only Frangieh remains in the arena.
The sources argue that it is unacceptable to suspend work based on the qualifications that the President must possess to avoid having a President with no options other than extending the crisis rapidly heading toward a complete collapse.
They say Le Drian's exploratory visit did not change the reality as long as the opposition, including the "Democratic Gathering," the Change MPs, and independents, remain committed to supporting Azour's nomination. At the same time, the Axis of Resistance insists on nominating Frangieh.
The same sources confirm that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is still committed to not vetoing any candidate or preferring one candidate over another. They say it leaves the decision to the parliamentary battle for the presidency. Until now, it has not committed to any promises. It will determine its stance later in light of evaluating its work program. However, it advises avoiding tampering with the Taif Agreement or bypassing it by adopting practices that undermine its essence, which could lead Lebanon into political mazes that it can do without.
Therefore, all eyes remain focused on the "Quintet Committee" meeting without speculating on its outcomes and whether it will determine Le Drian's next move regarding his return to Beirut after consulting with Macron, given that his return date has not been fixed.
In this context, a source close to the Axis of Resistance told the "Asharq al-Awsat" newspaper that Basil's mere opening to Hezbollah indicates his readiness to close the chapter of opposition to Azour's nomination. However, engaging in such a bet is premature since both sides are still sticking to their respective positions regarding the presidential election.