In the coming days, Lebanon may witness a profound "upheaval" as recent escalations following the last Quintet meeting in Doha are expected to have far-reaching repercussions. The escalating financial, economic, social, and security challenges loom as the confrontation approaches the zero hour.
This article was originally published in and translated from the Lebanese newspaper al-Akhbar.
A gloomy outlook pervades the minds of most stakeholders in the weeks and months ahead following the end of the temporary truce imposed by the French initiative, with the Doha talks concluding and the chapter on French involvement closing, crisis management is set to enter a new phase.
Simultaneously, Lebanon faces a critical juncture with the end of Governor Riad Salameh's 30-year tenure at the Central Bank, as his successors declined to take up the responsibility, leaving the nation's monetary future uncertain.
The US dollar is expected to surge further, exacerbating inflation, livelihood crises and sparking street tensions.
These are not mere speculations but conclusions drawn from informed sources who see the current developments revolving around two fundamental issues: the presidency and the governance of the Central Bank.
Efforts to retain Governor Salameh in his position through extensions or renewals have proven futile in the last two days. Likewise, the four deputy governors - Wassim Mansouri, Bachir Yakzan, Salim Chahine, and Alexander Mouradian - failed to secure "legitimacy" from the Parliament by requesting the approval of several laws, including the 2024 budget, capital controls, banking sector restructuring, depositor protection, and other financial laws.
Their attempts to acquire cover for Salameh's monetary and financial maneuvers were also met with resistance, making them more reluctant to accept the task.
In this context, sources told al-Akhbar that the four deputy governors are likely to resign collectively next Tuesday if no significant developments occur.
However, al-Akhbar's informed sources indicated that "Speaker of the Parliament, Nabih Berri, still opposes the appointment of First Deputy Wassim Mansouri, fearing an escalation of the situation and holding the Shiite duo responsible."
It has pointed out that "the four deputy governors will continue to perform their duties after resigning, as the government will request their continuation under the pretext of managing public services until a new Central Bank governor is appointed. However, according to their claims, this measure will relieve them of some responsibilities."
Politically, as the information available about the Quintet meeting in Doha suggests an intent to enter a new phase of dealing with the Lebanese file, political circles reveal that French envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian will arrive in Beirut next Tuesday or Wednesday with unknown intentions, according to the sources.
Qataris, however, have been ahead of Le Drian in Beirut, initiating parallel movements with a more significant margin of maneuver than the French. Qatari officials met with some political forces, including the National Moderation Bloc deputies and officials from the Shiite duo.
Sources conveyed that the Qataris assessed that the French initiative had ended after the Quintet meeting and that the dialogue was a French idea. France might sponsor it, but there is no Western or international cover.
Notably, the Qataris did not leak any information about one candidate; they discussed General Joseph Aoun with some of those they met, exploring the possibility of him reaching Baabda and whether the current situation allows for promoting him.
However, they denied any existence of a candidate for the Quintet, emphasizing they would not repeat the French mistake of proposing names and burning them.
In light of this, informed sources caution that "the current Qatari moves indicate an external decision to undermine the French role and strike down the Paris initiative, replacing it with Doha. The real role entrusted to them will become apparent in the next stage."
The unfolding crisis in the Lebanese presidential file is intertwined with external dynamics that have lately contradicted the climate of regional rapprochement and reconciliation among influential forces in Lebanon.
The US has notably adopted a stringent approach to prevent any positive effects of Saudi-Iranian convergence on Syria, Yemen, and Lebanon. Consequently, the recent escalation in the Quintet [meeting] and the European Parliament's statements follow the same tough US stance.
Accordingly, the sources believe that "the neutralization of the French effort, and the advancement of the American vision for the Lebanese presidency, and with it the Saudi desire, all of this can be considered a new attempt to take advantage of these climates to solve the presidential dilemma in a way that gives the anti-Hezbollah party in Lebanon a presidential victory that completes the scene that was not completed in the recent parliamentary elections."
This "explains the haste of the Lebanese Forces to reject the internal dialogue and the declaration of its leader, Samir Geagea, that the goal is to defeat Hezbollah in this file, in which the right to decide on it was restricted to the Christian parties and portrayed as a Christian entitlement in the first place."
The sources warned that "the mistake that the parties to the Quintet may make is if they believe that the internal position rejecting the imposed solutions, despite its vision, is weak or insufficient. Experiences, especially the presidential ones, say that the inside is the cornerstone of detente or external settlements and that bypassing an internal team will not lead to a solution, even if the Americans or Saudis support this solution."
The sources pointed out, "This does not mean that the team supporting Sleiman Frangieh has a problem with the army commander, but the absence of a problem with General Aoun does not mean that he would be president."
On the other hand, it was reported that the Swedish ambassador to Beirut, Ann Dismore, decided to leave Lebanon after the Lebanese security authorities strengthened the procedures in the vicinity of the Swedish embassy in Beirut.
This step comes after the Secretary-General of Hezbollah called, in a speech, "the Arab and Islamic peoples to ask their governments to withdraw their ambassadors from Sweden and expel the Swedish ambassadors from their countries," while it was reported that the Lebanese Foreign Ministry summoned the ambassador, as she was informed that "it is better for her to leave."