The recent French initiative in Lebanon has suffered a significant setback, as President Emmanuel Macron's bet on the role of his envoy to Beirut and the French Ambassador to Lebanon, Anne Grillo, quickly dissipated.
This article was originally published in, translated from the Arab outlet of Asharq Al-Awsat.
Moreover, the French wager on Saudi Arabia adopting their endeavor and persuading its allies to vote for candidate Sleiman Frangieh yielded opposite results.
Regarding this point, a source in the Lebanese opposition told Asharq Al-Awsat that the French "misjudged the situation and thought their implicit agreement with Hezbollah would suffice to pass the deal. They believed the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement would be enough to change the stance of the Kingdom's allies in Lebanon."
The source, who requested anonymity, confirmed that "the Saudi position was clear from the beginning, with no endorsement of any candidate or interference in the internal affairs of any brotherly country. It is up to the Lebanese to reach an agreement on the president, and the Kingdom deals with it based on his performance and the nature of the forming government and the reform program adopted."
The problem with the French, who sought to regain their role and influence in the region through Lebanon, is that they "accumulated previous mistakes," according to the source.
They backtracked on the previous initiative proposed by President Macron to Lebanese leaders following the Beirut Port explosion, which he quickly reversed.
The initiative initially obligated the leaders and heads of parliamentary blocs to form a technocratic government composed of specialists and free from the influence of ruling powers.
However, within a few days, Macron began making concessions, asking Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri to negotiate with the parties and accept their representation in the government, handing Hezbollah the right of veto on specific names.
Macron also tried to oblige Hariri to meet Gebran Bassil (head of the Free Patriotic Movement) in Paris to give him a balanced share in the government, which prompted Hariri to apologize for forming the government nine months after he was appointed.
As a result, the source believes that "the involvement of the French administration in the presidential elections and its insistence on promoting the Sleiman Frangieh-Nawaf Salam deal, ignoring the Christian consensus and opposition deputies from other sects, deprived the French role of its neutrality."
On another note, the source reminded that "President Macron, his special envoy, and even Ambassador Grillo did not read the scene of the presidential elections correctly when the majority of the opposition voted for the (former) candidate Michel Moawad, the votes he received exceeded 44, while the Shiite duo chose to hide their candidate's name by submitting a blank vote."
The French also ignored the progress of the opposition candidate Jihad Azour in the 12th session, where he garnered eight more votes than Frangieh (Azour received 59 votes compared to 51 for Frangieh), and they remained supportive of the resistance axis candidate."
Thus, it is evident that during his previous visit to Beirut, envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian realized the challenge of penetrating the opposition's position.
He swiftly framed his mission in the context of "assessing the situation to assist in finding solutions to Lebanon's crisis and discussing with all parties how to accomplish the presidential elections."
Notably, the Lebanese dissatisfaction extended not only to political parties but also to religious authorities, especially Maronite Patriarch Bechara Boutros al-Rahi.
According to the same source, the French envoy heard a clear reprimand from the patriarch for ignoring the will of the majority of the people and parliamentary representatives regarding a pivotal electoral process that primarily concerns Christians and all Lebanese in general.
On that day, the French envoy announced from the Patriarchate that his goal was "merely to listen to the views of the parties and conduct necessary consultations to immediately exit the political impasse and then examine the agenda for reforms to restore vitality and hope to Lebanon."
Similarly, Le Drian reassured Patriarch al-Rahi that he "does not hold any preconceived options and will listen to everyone, and there will be other upcoming visits," acknowledging that "the solution starts with the Lebanese."
Therefore, the opposition source hopes that Le Drian's recent visit to Lebanon will lead to a shift in French policy and that Paris will become an active and facilitative member of the Quintet committee's initiative and the decisions taken during the Doha meeting.