Lebanon has not yet emerged from the war. Despite the relief that prevailed after the speech of Hezbollah's Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, and Hezbollah's commitment to a deterrent political position against any Israeli attacks and provocations, the situation continues. The field support remains under the framework of the new confrontation rules. Lebanese developments are unfolding at the pace of the Gaza war. Multiple assessments indicate a decrease in the level of fear of the situation escalating or the carefully planned confrontations turning into a widespread war. This is still unlikely despite the Israeli army making some ground progress inside the Gaza Strip. However, as long as Hamas and Palestinian resistance continue operations against the occupation forces and launch rockets toward Tel Aviv and other settlements, achieving real military objectives remains elusive.
This article is originally published in, translated from Lebanese newspaper al-Modon. Israeli Intentions Despite all these facts, there is still fear of two possibilities. First, Israelis may shift from the Gaza war to the northern front, escaping the failure to achieve any of their declared goals in the Strip. Second, they may be considering preparing for a preemptive military operation in southern Lebanon as a deterrent measure in response to the northern front, under the slogan "so that October 7 does not repeat." This would be done under the guise of taking advantage of international support, especially with the presence of the U.S. fleet, to weaken Hezbollah's capabilities with justifications like "the safety of the Galilee" or to allow evacuated residents to return to their settlements. Lebanese Policy It may be within Israeli logic to think this way. Certainly, Hezbollah must be considering all these scenarios and preparing for them militarily. However, there is also political discourse in providing a comprehensive political plan by official Lebanon, authorized by Hezbollah, to prevent any Israeli scenario of this kind. This can be linked to Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati's regional tour, and his international communications, especially with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken. According to information made available, the meeting was positive. The Americans emphasized the rejection of expanding the war and the need to maintain stability in Lebanon. Mikati confirmed this commitment to Resolution 1701. The plan may also involve returning to negotiations to "show" and stabilize the borders. Thus, renewing negotiations in the future in a way that ensures stability, connecting it to the return to the confrontation rules that were in place before October 7 and adhering to them. The success of all these efforts and initiatives can provide various Western and Arab guarantees to prevent any new Israeli aggression by providing a protective umbrella for Lebanon. Among what Lebanon is also counting on is the success of Arab efforts putting pressure on Washington and Tel Aviv to achieve a ceasefire, possibly progressing from a humanitarian truce to the release of hostages in exchange for the release of prisoners, followed by genuine and serious political negotiations to find a solution that will take a long time.