Shifting focus, Israel monitors Iran as Netanyahu weighs Lebanon strike

Report by Amal Shehadeh, English adaptation by Karine Keuchkerian 

Israel is closely monitoring developments inside Iran. Political and military officials had been preparing for a strike, but before unrest erupted on the streets, Israeli calculations shifted toward the possibility of the regime collapsing from within—a scenario that cannot be determined immediately.

Events in Iran prompted Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to replace a cabinet meeting scheduled for Thursday, which was to discuss a strike on Lebanon, with a smaller political and security consultation.

The deliberations remained secret, though reports suggest they addressed developments in Iran, and ministers were asked not to make any public statements on the matter.

Despite leaks suggesting Netanyahu had received a green light from the U.S. president to strike Lebanon, the latest assessments indicate he is no longer in a rush. Any such move could divert global attention from the situation inside Iran.

As a result, Israeli security agencies are focusing on reprioritizing their plans to address both developments in Iran and threats from Hezbollah, aiming to weaken the group’s capabilities while avoiding a large-scale military confrontation.

According to army estimates, expanding targeted attacks could help undermine Hezbollah’s capabilities. The army claims the group still possesses thousands of rockets, mostly short- and medium-range, but it is no longer able to launch them daily as it did in previous rounds, when its rockets posed a threat to Israel’s critical infrastructure. 

Hezbollah’s Radwan Force has also diminished in number and is now deployed across the north of the Litani River, Beirut's southern suburbs, and the Bekaa region.

All of these assessments are being reviewed by security agencies to plan potential strikes against Lebanon or Iran. The final decision remains with Netanyahu, who has scheduled his weekly cabinet meeting for next Sunday in Qiryat Shemona, in northern Israel, unless new developments shift the balance.