Scenarios emerge: Israel warns of regional war with Iran as US prepares for possible escalation

Report by Amal Shehadeh, English adaptation by Karine Keuchkerian 

Israeli security officials have warned against failing to take seriously Iranian threats to launch a full-scale war if Iran is struck by the United States, particularly in light of security reports indicating that Tehran possesses large and advanced weapons systems.

The warnings coincided with a U.S. military air exercise aimed at training for a rapid response to any Iranian offensive targeting U.S. forces in the region or their allies.

Consultations between Tel Aviv and Washington, portions of which have been disclosed, suggest that the failure of diplomatic talks could push Washington toward an operation similar to one carried out in Venezuela, with the first phase involving a blockade of Iran.

An Israeli report said the two countries are preparing for two scenarios: countering a sudden Iranian preemptive attack intended to disrupt a U.S. strike, and confronting an Iranian response that would not be limited to Israel but would include multiple targets. 

These could include closing the Strait of Hormuz using naval mines, swarms of small, fast armed boats, attack drones, and missiles, disrupting global oil and gas supplies.

Washington and Tel Aviv have also factored in the possibility of an attack on the U.S. Fifth Fleet in the Arabian Gulf and the Houthis joining the confrontation by closing the Bab al-Mandab Strait.

The report added that despite the scale of U.S. force deployments in the region, Washington faces challenges in gathering precise intelligence from inside Iran, complicating efforts to identify target lists, particularly with regard to assassinations.

Amid these scenarios, Israel is on high alert, reinforcing its defensive systems and preparing for the arrival of THAAD systems to counter ballistic missiles.