Politically, it became clear that political figures in Lebanon were not informed in advance about the visit of the French presidential envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian to Beirut, or what he carries with him to address the presidential file.
Apart from scheduling appointments for the presidential envoy with Berri and Mikati and many political and parliamentary figures, starting his meetings with them from tomorrow, Wednesday, there are many question marks in political circles about the main motive for this sudden visit at this particular time.
Many questions are raised about what prompted it just a few days after the unannounced visit by Qatari envoy Sheikh Jassim bin Fahd Al Thani to Beirut last week.
Diplomatic sources in Paris informed "Al-Joumhouria" that France is in constant consultation with friends of Lebanon who share a concerned view of its situation and the need to help it overcome its crises. They pointed out that Le Drian's visit to Beirut was originally scheduled shortly after his last visit, between late September and early October of last year, but the program was modified due to the events of October 7th in Gaza.
The same sources emphasized that Le Drian's visit essentially comes in the context of an attempt to revive an opportunity that the Elysée Palace sees as necessary for the Lebanese people in these difficult circumstances in the Middle East region. The aim is to participate in helping elect a president as soon as possible. Time is now very tight, and critical, and it is running out and there are fears that it may lead to many difficulties and unpredictable consequences.
In response to whether Le Drian is coming to Beirut armed with new ideas or proposals that impose something on the political components in Lebanon, the sources said that "Le Drian's mission is to help the Lebanese reach an agreement on the election of a president. No one is talking about pressure or matters imposed on them. What we see as crucial is that the Lebanese should appreciate Lebanon's interest in these circumstances, outside the political calculations that caused great harm to the Lebanese people."
In this context, it is noted that Paris, according to reliable sources, considers that political and partisan calculations are what control the course of the political game in Lebanon. The direct results of these calculations include hindering the election of a president, as well as the deep disagreement over the leadership of the army and the division over it between a team supporting the end of the term of Army Commander General Joseph Aoun and calling for the appointment of a new commander, and another team calling for his extension and delaying his retirement. This complicates the matter even more.
However, a political source told "Al-Joumhouria," "Le Drian's visit, whether he carries new ideas or old ideas, is a good and appreciated visit, not to mention necessary. I hope that it contributes to bringing down the presidential file from the shelf and reactivating it towards expediting the election of a president."
Nevertheless, the source, in response to whether Le Drian's visit competes with the Qatari movement regarding the presidential file, said, "I do not have anything confirming the existence of competition or the like. Let us wait for what ideas he will present, and based on that, the appropriate action will be taken. We heard in the media that Le Drian met with the Qataris and also the Saudis. In addition, the Qatari envoy in his recent movement in Beirut, which continued until last Friday, was moving within the framework of a Qatari initiative and Qatari ideas, and the atmosphere was acceptable."
However, sources closely following external movements towards Lebanon confirmed through "Al-Joumhouria" that the mission of the Qatari envoy in Lebanon faced many difficulties, preventing him from attracting the parties to agree on a presidential choice.
The same goes for Le Drian's mission, which can be said before his arrival that it is also very difficult. The reason is clear, as the Lebanese internal situation is rigid in the face of obstruction, with no internal signal from any party concerned with the presidency indicating a change in positions regarding the presidential deadline, a retreat from conflicting conditions, or readiness to sit at the table and discuss presidential options.
Therefore, if Le Drian's visit is limited to repeating his previous proposals regarding inviting the Lebanese to dialogue, and saying that Sleiman Frangieh and Jihad Azour did not reach the threshold of winning the presidency in the last session held by the parliament and that the safest option is to search for a third choice, the answer is clear. He carried this in his last visit in September, where he left Beirut empty-handed.
According to sources, regardless of whether the visit is coordinated with the Qataris or others, the most difficult aspects of Le Drian's mission at this time are two. First, some political components are betting that field and military developments in the region may create new balances and equations that will inevitably affect Lebanon.
It will serve as an incentive for some to invest in them and manipulate them to achieve political gains for their political team. The second is that a group of Lebanese now openly doubts the French role and does not see that France is capable of playing the role of a fair and neutral mediator in any Lebanese event, especially the presidential event, given its complete bias towards Israel in its destructive war on Gaza.