Strategic maneuvers and unforeseen alliances: Decoding the twelfth presidential session

The results of the twelfth session of electing a president for the republic have established several constants that cannot be deviated from.

Firstly, the ability to elect a president is contingent upon consensus. Despite the increasing voices calling for confrontation, no party can unilaterally produce a president. 

Secondly, the ability of the Shiite duo to attract unexpected votes, especially from the Sunni or Christian communities, and their ability to secure a high number of votes for themselves, was unexpected in favor of Sleiman Frangieh. 

 

 

The opposing forces to Frangieh wanted to imply that around 70 deputies did not want him to assume power. However, the duo also worked to show that about 68 deputies do not support Azour.

Undoubtedly, the duo worked quietly and exerted pressure to shape the outline of these numbers. 

They worked to narrow the gap between Azour and Frangieh to less than ten votes. 

It is also important to note the critical point of contact between US Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland and Speaker Nabih Berri. 

This has divided the Lebanese people in terms of interpretation. 

Some opponents rushed to consider that Washington is pressuring to ensure the continuation of the session and prevent the quorum from being lost, or else there will be sanctions. 

On the contrary, supporters of Berri believe that Nuland's contact itself is a sign of continued coordination with him and reliance on him and that he will not be subject to sanctions. 

Based on this discrepancy in readings, it is necessary to pause and consider the mechanism of the US action, which always intentionally sends contradictory signals.
Examining the battle in its general form from multiple angles is necessary. 

It should be noted that external parties oppose Sleiman Frangieh's rise. This became evident in the meetings among the five countries. After Saudi Arabia lifted its veto on Sleiman Frangieh, there had to be a gathering of opposition forces around a candidate. 

This opposition received insufficient external support to raise Azour's votes above sixty. 

The reduction of conflict intensity led to the increase in Frangieh's votes through the votes of Sunnite deputies, who tried to seek external signals and conduct consultations but did not receive them.

Practically, no one emerged with an apparent defeat. Still, it was a serious attempt to remove Sleiman Frangieh from the race. 

Jihad Azour's numbers solidified his position in the equation and, therefore, in any serious negotiations, but on the condition that the criterion is consensus, especially since the man emphasizes his keenness to communicate with the Shiite duo and has not cut off communication in the first place. 

The session practically established a static situation that will remain in place for a long time while opening the door for many negotiation processes by each party to improve its conditions and the possibility of seeking a third candidate. 

However, this must be subject to a fundamental criterion: reaching a president capable of securing more than eighty votes based on the principles of consensus. 

This raises many questions about how to find this candidate and whether it will pave the way for the Army Commander. The fundamental question is, what does Hezbollah want to go in this direction?

What happened in the session confirms that many efforts have been made to reduce tensions and prevent any party from trying to break the other. 

Such intricate maneuvers can only occur with internal and external sponsorship, especially in the context of regional understandings and rapprochements, where no party wants to break the other while awaiting multiple events. 

The most prominent of these is the visit of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to France, followed by the visit of the Saudi Foreign Minister to Iran, and the possibility of resuming external communication regarding the revival of the Quintet Committee, after the visit of the French envoy to Lebanon, Jean-Yves Le Drian.