Between war and diplomacy: Why Israel-Lebanon talks remain uncertain

Report by Bassam Abou Zeid, English adaptation by Mariella Succar

Direct negotiations between Lebanon and Israel that have been widely discussed are not guaranteed to take place, and even if they do, their outcome remains uncertain.

To understand why, it is necessary to examine what each side seeks from potential negotiations.

Lebanon’s government, led by President Joseph Aoun, has signaled its willingness to enter talks. However, the Lebanese state would be negotiating at a time when Hezbollah continues to fight in the ongoing conflict, outside the state’s direct authority, and maintains that developments on the battlefield will determine the next steps.

Meanwhile, the presence of the Israeli army in parts of southern Lebanon underscores the complexity of the situation.

Lebanon has set a condition for entering negotiations: a ceasefire must be established first. Israel has rejected this condition, insisting that negotiations should proceed while hostilities continue, with the broader objective of dismantling Hezbollah.

The two sides also differ on the ultimate goal of negotiations. Lebanon seeks an agreement to end attacks and hostilities, while Israel is aiming for a formal peace treaty.

Amid these contradictions, Emmanuel Macron has stepped in diplomatically. France appears eager to play a role in shaping developments in the Middle East and to position itself in the diplomatic process.

Paris has engaged with several leaders, including Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, U.S. President Donald Trump, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and President Joseph Aoun, while also maintaining communication channels with Hezbollah. This has led France to express readiness to sponsor or host potential negotiations.

However, it remains unclear whether Washington will allow Paris to take a leading role in such diplomatic efforts, particularly given that the U.S. administration’s position is closer to Israel’s stance than to Lebanon’s.

The United States supports dismantling Hezbollah and eliminating its military capabilities. After years of difficult political engagement in Lebanon, questions remain over whether the Lebanese state is capable of ensuring that Hezbollah would comply with any agreement reached through negotiations.

Ultimately, Lebanon’s leadership, particularly President Joseph Aoun, appears inclined toward negotiations. However, Hezbollah’s calculations differ, as do Israel’s, and for now the trajectory of the conflict suggests that the option of war continues to outweigh the prospects for diplomacy.