In a recent development, MP Gebran Bassil faced a challenging dilemma: he realized that he could not make progress with the opposition and would not achieve satisfactory gains, according to what political sources told Addiyar.
This article was originally published in and translated from the Lebanese newspaper Addiyar.
Furthermore, Bassil became convinced that Hezbollah had no intention of withdrawing its support for Sleiman Frangieh's candidacy.
As a result, he concluded that the only viable option left was to strike a deal with Hezbollah, presenting a trade-off wherein he would secure broad decentralization and a trust fund in exchange for sacrificing the presidential file for the next six years.
The sources noted that Bassil also spoke of promises he received regarding future gains after six years, suggesting that someone had assured him of the presidency being bestowed upon him.
Accordingly, Bassil is trying, through his words, to justify to his environment and supporters that if he backed down from his position rejecting Frangieh, this would be after he obtained steps that are in the interest of the Christians.
In light of this context, political observers interpreted Strong Lebanon Bloc leader Gebran Bassil's statements as an attempt to gauge reactions and responses to his position. It appears that Hezbollah interpreted Bassil's stance favorably.
The sources further confirmed that the situation has reached a stalemate, where the presidential equation can only be altered through a shift in the balance of power. In other words, if there is no internal change in the balance of power, the situation will remain as it is.
The French presidential envoy's efforts to positively influence the presidential election process or any external intervention that could alter Hezbollah's position would be in vain.
The only factor that could bring about change is a shift in the internal political dynamics, which is the Free Patriotic Movement, with it being the sole moving force that can transition from the opposition's side to align with Hezbollah and alter its position.
Based on this internal political reality, the bet lies with the Free Patriotic Movement as the only active party capable of moving towards Hezbollah.
In this scenario, the latter is banking on supporting Bassil's endorsement of Frangieh for the presidency and that the resistance axis, through the Saudi-Iranian understanding, will then be able to prompt Saudi Arabia to soften its stance on Frangieh's election.