The issue of the vacancy in the Lebanese army leadership has stolen the spotlight from the rest of the files in the recent period, as key positions in the country have gradually become vacant since October 31, 2022, when President Michel Aoun's term in Baabda Palace ended.
This article was originally published in, translated from Lebanese newspaper Nidaa al-Watan.
The consensus is that the proper solution for the vacant positions or interim appointments is the election of a new president.
The first vacancy occurred after the end of the term of the Director General of General Security, Abbas Ibrahim.
At that time, Speaker of the Parliament Nabih Berri refused to extend Ibrahim's term, wanting to diminish his influence. As a result, Brigadier General Elias El-Baissari assumed the role on an interim basis.
On July 31, the term of the Governor of the Central Bank of Lebanon, Riad Salameh, ended.
After consultations and assurances, First Deputy Governor Wassim Mansouri also assumed the position on an interim basis.
The extension battle for Army Commander General Joseph Aoun has been ongoing for over a month, taking on various dimensions that have overshadowed other issues.
Observers of both internal and external interest in the Army leadership file discover the challenges facing the military institution, whether in leadership or on-the-ground tasks.
Since October 17, 2019, the Army Commander has been handling a volatile situation, attempting to balance the demands of the street and preserving public and private assets, as well as addressing the requests of politicians.
He was unable to meet the demands of the "era of Michel Aoun" and MP Gebran Bassil, which turned against him and began to fight him as he confronted all attempts to attack the protestors.
Patriarch Bechara Boutros al-Rahi raised the stakes, making Aoun's extension a national and Christian issue.
The continued presence of Aoun at the head of the military institution means keeping a Maronite figure in the leadership after the presidential vacuum and the failure to appoint a governor for the Central Bank of Lebanon.
Several countries linked their aid to the leadership change in the army, as the Army Commander is required to ensure the continuity of the army and gather assistance for it.
General Aoun managed to navigate the situation with minimal losses after the salaries of the military personnel reached their lowest levels.
He sought help from some countries, especially for health coverage, taking advantage of the international community's appreciation for the army's role and its non-involvement in corruption.
Communication with the world is a significant challenge for whoever takes over leadership. Failure in this task would lead to the cessation of aid that keeps the army resilient.
Diplomatic sources told Nidaa al-Watan that the security situation in Lebanon is cause for concern, and it is not limited to developments in the south but extends to the interior.
European and Western fears of security disturbances that will inevitably lead to the spread of chaos to neighboring countries are highlighted.
The chaos in Lebanon will not be contained within its borders at that point. Hence, those countries insist on ensuring stability in the army's leadership.
The challenges go beyond technical matters to the reality on the ground. The army, both in leadership and personnel, faces challenges in maintaining security on the ground.
The economic struggles could have been disastrous without the presence of military authority, but this situation is threatened amidst rising concerns of "mobile" events amid the absence of political stability.
On the other hand, the army is tasked with regulating the Syrian displacement and confronting new waves of displacement.
Any disruption in the security and military field could open the country to new waves of displacement, leaving the displaced within without "restraint."
The most significant challenge at this stage is dealing with the situation in the south and implementing Resolution 1701.
Although the situation on the border is beyond the state's control, the army's readiness opens up possibilities for solutions, especially with a serious decision to implement the resolution.
In connection with the war file, the army tries as much as possible to control the camps and prevent the spread of chaos, as a repetition of the 1967 experience and its aftermath could lead to a new war with uncertain consequences.
Therefore, the challenges facing the army are numerous and significant. If these challenges converge, they signify one thing: the continuity of the entity.
If the military institution falters, the last "bastions" of legitimacy will fall, opening the situation to the most dangerous scenarios.