The results cast doubt on President Tayyip Erdogan's program of slashing interest rates to support economic growth, exports, investment and employment.
The rate easing cycle pursued since late 2021 led to a currency crisis, which in turn sent inflation to a 24-year high of 85.5 percent in October. While inflation eased to 64.3 percent in December due largely to base effects, economists expect its decline to be slower than Ankara expects.
The median forecast of 12 economists in the poll stood at 42.5 percent for inflation at end-2023, with forecasts ranging between 28.5 percent and 48.1 percent. It was seen falling to 26.4 percent in 2024. Those compare to Ankara's inflation forecasts of 24.9 percent for 2023 and 13.8 percent for 2024.
Officials say price stability will be achieved once chronic current account deficits flip to surpluses, as a result of the interest rate-cutting program.
However, Ankara does not see a surplus in the three years to 2025 that its forecasts cover.
The poll also predicted gross domestic product (GDP) growth would fall short of official expectations. It is seen at 3 percent for both this year and next, according to the median of 28 economists, compared to Ankara's forecasts of 5.0 percent and 5.5 percent, respectively.
Growth was expected to have been 5.0 percent in 2022, in line with government forecasts.
Economists say monetary policy in the second half of 2023 will depend on whether an opposition alliance can beat Erdogan in presidential and parliamentary elections likely to be held in May.
All 22 economists who participated in the Reuters poll expected Turkey's central bank to keep its policy rate unchanged at 9 percent at its meeting on Jan. 19.
While the median estimate for the policy rate in the first half of the year stood at 9 percent in the Reuters poll, many saw hikes in the second half of the year, with one as high as 50 percent.
The median estimate for the policy rate in the third quarter stood at 24 percent, while in the fourth quarter it was 25 percent.
Analysts say if Erdogan wins the elections, his government is likely to push on with unorthodox policies and the central bank would be expected to keep rates low, even as inflation remains high.
The opposition has promised to ditch Erdogan's unorthodox policies and free the central bank to hike rates.
Win Thin, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, said the central bank would likely continue to ease policy further through macroprudential measures ahead of elections.
"As a result, the country will continue to careen towards a full-blown economic crisis due to an unsustainable policy mix. The best that President Erdogan can hope for is that it will come after the elections," Thin said in a note.
The forecasts for the current account deficit-to-GDP ratio in the Reuters poll were also far higher than that of the government, with 4.3 percent expected in 2023 and 3.5 percent in 2024. Those compare to Ankara's forecasts of 2.5 percent and 1.4 percent, respectively.