Lebanon is facing a new international test next Thursday. The test is related to a position that some countries are seeking to adopt regarding Syria, and it is related to voting on a resolution at the United Nations to establish a new institution specifically for the issue of missing and forcibly disappeared persons in Syria.
The Luxembourg mission, along with the permanent missions of Albania, Belgium, Cape Verde, the Dominican Republic, and North Macedonia, has presented a draft resolution to establish a mechanism to investigate and determine the fate of detainees, missing persons, and those forcibly disappeared in Syria.
According to the text of the resolution, its aim is not to assign blame or point fingers at any party. Its sole purpose is purely humanitarian, which is to uncover the fate of tens of thousands of forcibly disappeared individuals, whether of Syrian nationality or other nationalities.
The Syrian regime and the Lebanese position
The resolution does not include any time frame related to the period of the disappearance of any individual, meaning that it is not limited to the years of the Syrian war alone but encompasses long periods which will directly affect Lebanon. It is well known that multiple Lebanese entities are seeking to uncover the fate of detainees in Syrian prisons.
The resolution project seeks to avoid any political divisions, emphasizing the principles of Syria's safety and territorial integrity. It is presented in a format that does not appear to target the regime or any other party. However, Damascus views this resolution as an attempt to interfere in its internal affairs and will oppose it.
Based on this, an essential question arises about Lebanon's position on this project and how it will vote.
Undoubtedly, Lebanon will find itself in an awkward situation. The official stance is keen on maintaining relations with the Syrian regime, in line with the Arab openness towards Damascus.
However, there are inclinations among political officials and influential forces not to vote in favor of the resolution but rather to abstain or express reservations instead of voting against it.
Yet, this will put the government in an embarrassing position, as many Lebanese citizens are among the missing, kidnapped, or detained in Syria, with Lebanese accusations pointed toward Damascus.
As a result, the government is expected to abstain from voting, leading to oppositional positions from internal forces regarding its performance.
The US Pressure
Notably, such a resolution comes simultaneously with a series of events. Firstly, there is Arab openness towards Damascus. Secondly, the US is intensifying sanctions against the Syrian regime and taking punitive measures against countries normalizing relations with Syria.
Additionally, a law has been enacted and enforced to combat and prevent Captagon smuggling.
Thirdly, US-Syrian negotiations have been held in the Sultanate of Oman and later in Jordan between US officials and Syrian regime representatives to discuss the release of US hostages in Syria, including prominent journalist Austin Tice.
This resolution may be linked to this context and falls within the framework of pressuring Damascus to reveal Tice's fate. The Syrian regime refuses to address this issue until it achieves political gains from the Americans and reduces sanctions.
This UN project resembles a previous resolution adopted in Iraq, which was initially opposed by the Iraqi government but later returned to cooperating with the committee responsible for monitoring the missing persons' file.
According to informed sources, it has a moral impact and pressure but will not have a tangible effect. There are no logistical or security capabilities capable of going to Syria and conducting investigations to uncover the fate of the missing persons.