Hezbollah and Frangieh: Navigating the complexities of the Resistance arms legalization

Amidst the fallout of the first phase of French Presidential Envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian's mission in Lebanon, all the estimations put forth by the opposition team have gradually collapsed.

When Le Drian left Beirut last Saturday, heading back to Paris, the opposition team embarked on a campaign to distort facts and shift priorities. One example of this is the focus on the end of the role of the opposition's intersectional candidate Jihad Azour immediately after the presidential election session on June 14 and the emphasis on the steadfastness of their candidate, Sleiman Frangieh.

This article was originally published in and translated from Lebanese newspaper "Nidaa Al-Watan."

However, it quickly became apparent that Azour, the opposition candidate, remains in the middle of the political movement and is preparing to meet with Le Drian to continue the consultations he conducted in Lebanon. It also became evident that Frangieh has become a bargaining tool.

What are the developments in Hezbollah's stance regarding the presidential election?

According to information from political sources closely connected to the election, the central operations order issued by the decision-making center in Haret Hreik focused on the call for dialogue.

Therefore, the leaders of the first rank in the party engaged in spreading the call and explaining its objectives, according to Hezbollah's vision, to fill the void after Le Drian departed from Beirut.

However, the new aspect in the order of the operations is what has been leaked from Hezbollah regarding dialogue and the stages it will go through. The current first stage includes inviting the opposition team to dialogue with Hezbollah regarding Frangieh, not only as an individual but also as the objective. One of the phrases adopted by the party's working team is the statement, "a president who does not stab the resistance in the back."

As for the second stage, suggested by one of Hezbollah's leaders, involves the readiness of the resistance to transition from adhering to Frangieh as the first and final choice to a dialogue on the party's core issues directly. It was understood that the party would suffice with Frangieh assuming the presidency to avoid raising any other problems, such as undertaking constitutional reforms that fulfill the demands of the southern suburbs.

However, if Frangieh fails to reach the Baabda Palace, Hezbollah will agree to engage with its opponents not based on a third option other than Frangieh and Azour but to seek guarantees, the foremost being the legalization of the armed presence of the resistance spearhead.

It is clear that after the equation of "Frangieh or no one," Hezbollah has started preparing for the equation of "post-Frangieh is the legalization of arms." Despite most Lebanese rejecting the resistance's presidential approach, this approach reveals the impossibility of reaching a beneficial result with a team that obstructs the constitutional process for 12 election sessions.

Political sources draw attention to the movement that the French envoy continues as he sets out to prepare a tour of the five countries, including France, the United States, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Qatar.

This round will culminate in contacts with Iran in order to practically become part of the Quincy, that is, the Quincy and Tehran. President Nabih Berri had foreseen this development in the work of the Quincy by saying a few days ago that the United States preferred the Army Commander, General Joseph Aoun, as a candidate for the presidency. This means that the paths will be opened through a dialogue between Washington and Tehran, albeit indirectly, and this dialogue is available through the amended Quincy. On the sidelines, the sources denied what was reported recently about holding a round of dialogue in Saudi Arabia.

In parallel, ongoing internal communications have revealed information about Hezbollah's growing inclination toward the idea of nominating the Army Commander. It was revealed that behind this lies the desire of Haret Hreik to soften its partner in the "Mar Mikhael Understanding," meaning the leader of the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), MP Gebran Bassil.

Talks with one of the resistance's members about seeking to restore the relationship between Frangieh and Bassil are happening. This has led the same sources to question what Hezbollah is orchestrating in order to maintain control over the presidential election by convincing Bassil to return to the embrace of Haret Hreik.