Inside Lebanon’s fragile moment: Political divisions, Israeli violations, and a looming negotiation track

Report by Lara El Hachem, English adaptation by Mariella Succar

Coordination between the presidential palace in Baabda and the speaker’s residence in Ain al-Tineh remains intact, according to visitors who met Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri on Wednesday.

The presidential palace has also shown commitment to the relationship, refraining from commenting on a statement issued by Berri’s media office, which denied any direct coordination with President Joseph Aoun regarding direct negotiations. 

The statement also rejected claims that Israel’s right to self-defense, as referenced in a U.S. State Department statement, was included in the November 27 agreement.

Baabda has avoided engaging in a public dispute with Ain al-Tineh. However, informed sources said the president was referring to provisions in the 2024 agreement that effectively grant Israel what is described as a right to self-defense.

Sources also stressed that the outcome of U.S.-mediated talks between Lebanon and Israel was a statement, not a bilateral agreement. The statement reflected positions expressed by various parties, with Lebanon emphasizing its stance that Israel must refrain from any offensive military operations against targets in Lebanon, including civilian, military and state infrastructure.

Lebanon remains committed to the cessation of hostilities and to United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, both referenced in the November 27 agreement.

As Lebanon awaits the United States to set a date for negotiations, work has begun at the presidential palace to form a team of specialists to handle the various issues expected to be raised during the talks.

However, negotiations are expected to be difficult and no less complex than the domestic situation. Lebanon has informed Washington it will not negotiate under fire, while Israel continues to violate the ceasefire on a daily basis.

The issue of stabilizing the ceasefire was discussed in recent days in Tel Aviv by the United Nations special coordinator for Lebanon, Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, who later briefed President Aoun during a closed-door meeting in Baabda on Thursday morning.

According to LBCI, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains determined to continue military operations south of the Litani River, with Israeli forces not expected to withdraw before dismantling the capabilities of Hezbollah. The Lebanese Army would then assume responsibility north of the river.

Hezbollah has publicly stated it is not concerned with the negotiations and is responding to violations.

Politically, divisions are deepening, with recent signs including the failure to convene a planned tripartite meeting in Baabda.

In parallel, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held a phone call with Berri on Wednesday night, during which he reviewed the latest developments in the diplomatic track mediated by Pakistan. 

He praised the resilience of the Lebanese people in the face of attacks and reaffirmed Iran’s full support for Lebanon.

Araghchi also stressed that halting Israeli attacks on Lebanon is part of the ceasefire understanding between Iran and the United States and will remain a key element in any future framework.