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Is the Quintet becoming a Quartet? Lebanon's presidential mediation uncertainty continues
News Bulletin Reports
2023-09-20 | 09:39
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Is the Quintet becoming a Quartet? Lebanon's presidential mediation uncertainty continues
Before the last Quintet [Committee] meeting is not like after it.
The Quintet [Committee] may no longer remain a "Quintet" if France's mandate for handling the Lebanese presidency file is revoked.
This has begun to become evident through the Saudi-American warning to France and the dissatisfaction with its open-ended initiatives and criticism of one failure after another, offering the Qatari mediator to take its place in the Lebanese arena if the French mediator does not adhere to a short time frame and a clear agenda with desired results.
It is worth noting that the Saudi-American divergence with France is not new, dating back to the time of the initial French initiative that promoted Hezbollah and Amal Movement-backed candidate Sleiman Frangieh.
In a short time, the Quintet could quickly transform into a "Quartet", or a "Trio" led by Saudi Arabia, the United States, and Qatar. Egypt could either become a complementary member or recede with the French role.
Qatar's "assignment" is for its envoy to carry, this time, an agenda bearing the name of a "consensus president" - a president named on a list headed by the Army Commander General Joseph Aoun, along with other names that, according to those proposing them, constitute a solution that bridges the distance between the "axis of resistance" and the "axis of opposition."
One solitary detail remains Gebran Bassil, who remains the only one outside of any settlement that would bring Joseph Aoun to the presidency at a time when opposition MPs who elected Jihad Azour are giving their votes to Aoun.
Berri and Frangieh are following suit, not out of conviction in this settlement or the end of Frangieh's chances, but to score "points" against Bassil.
The question remains: where does Hezbollah stand on all of these developments?
So far, there has been no response or stance reflecting its direction. But will Hezbollah join the settlement that promotes the Army Commander? If it happens, what is the size of this settlement, and what "fruits" will Hezbollah and, behind it, Iran reap from it in Lebanon?
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