Iranian Presidential Election: High Stakes and Voter Turnout in Focus

A report by Tony Mrad, English adaptation by Nadine Sassine 

Iranian voters started on Friday to cast their votes to choose a new president to succeed the late President Ebrahim Raisi.

Out of four candidates, three conservatives and one reformist, Iranians will choose their next president. However, the competition is essentially between the reformist candidate, Masoud Pezeshkian, and the conservative candidates, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf and Saeed Jalili, neither of whom agreed to withdraw in favor of the other. The third conservative candidate, Mostafa Pourmohammadi, has very slim chances of winning.

Out of sixty-one million eligible voters invited to the polls, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was among the first to cast his vote, urging Iranians to turn out in large numbers.

Khamenei's call aims to boost voter turnout, which saw a historic low of 48% in the previous presidential election in 2021, reflecting a decline in Iranians' trust in their leaders and governance.

This situation has everyone focused on the voter turnout rate. This rate will likely tip the scales in favor of either the reformist or conservative camps, and the nature of the regions with high turnout is also crucial. High turnout in major cities increases the chances for reformist Pezeshkian, while high turnout in rural areas benefits the conservatives.

By late afternoon, the authorities had not announced any official figures regarding voter turnout, with predictions split between notable participation and low turnout.
In a move to potentially increase the voting rate, the voting period was extended by two hours, a practice that may continue until midnight, as has been customary in previous elections.

After the polls close, votes will be counted manually, with the final results expected to be announced next Sunday, though preliminary indications may be available sooner. However, if none of the candidates receives more than fifty percent of the votes, a second round will be held between the top two candidates.
So, will we witness a second round of the Iranian presidential elections?