Leadership transition within Hamas: Who will lead Hamas and what lies ahead?

Report by Ahmad Abdallah, English adaptation by Yasmine Jaroudi

Over a year after October 7, Israel has exacted revenge on the mastermind behind the attack, assassinating Yahya Sinwar. 

As one of the founders of Hamas' military wing, the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades, Sinwar had played a pivotal role in strengthening the group's ties with Iran and Hezbollah. Over time, he became the face of the hardline faction within Hamas. 

Now, the critical question is: who will succeed Sinwar, and how will this shape the future of the movement, the ongoing war, and the fate of Israeli hostages held by Hamas?

One of the leading contenders for Sinwar's position is his brother, Mohammad Sinwar. 

Born in 1975, Mohammad is a prominent military leader within the Al-Qassam Brigades. He has rarely appeared publicly or spoken to the media but is regarded as a key figure in Hamas' military structure. 

Mohammad is believed to have overseen several major military operations, including managing the network of tunnels used by Hamas for launching attacks against Israel.

Mohammad's ideology closely aligns with that of his late brother, advocating armed resistance and rejecting any negotiations with Israel unless Hamas' conditions are met. This stance places him firmly within the movement's hardline faction. His strong ties to Iran and Hezbollah suggest that these alliances would continue to flourish under his leadership should he be appointed to the top position.

If Mohammad Sinwar is chosen to succeed his brother, Hamas is expected to maintain its hardline approach on the battlefield and in negotiations over the Israeli hostages. 

However, other names have emerged on the political front as possible successors, including Khalil al-Hayya, Yahya Sinwar's deputy. 

Al-Hayya, who has coordinated closely with Sinwar and led negotiations for ceasefires and prisoner exchanges, is seen as more flexible than Sinwar. While still aligned with the movement's broader goals, his leadership could potentially signal a slight shift towards negotiation and de-escalation.

Another potential successor is Khaled Meshaal, the former leader of Hamas from abroad. 

Meshaal's extensive regional network and his ability to build alliances could steer Hamas back towards negotiations with Israel and neighboring states, should he be elected. His return could mark a significant change in the movement's strategy, especially concerning dialogue with external powers.
 
However, figures such as Mousa Abu Marzook represent a more hardline wing within Hamas, staunchly opposing direct negotiations with Israel and favoring continued armed resistance. Should someone like Abu Marzook rise to power, it could signal a continuation, or even intensification, of military actions against Israel, potentially expanding the war to other fronts.

Yahya Sinwar's leadership bridged the political and military wings of Hamas. His assassination leaves the movement at a crossroads, with various scenarios in play.