In numbers: Can General Joseph Aoun surmount the 86-vote barrier on Thursday's presidential session?

Report by Yazbek Wehbe, English adaptation by Yasmine Jaroudi

As Lebanon approaches Thursday's presidential election session, preliminary numbers from the first round suggest a challenging road ahead. 

Currently, three major blocs have confirmed they will not back Army Commander General Joseph Aoun. 

These include Speaker Nabih Berri's Development and Liberation bloc with 15 MPs, the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) led by Gebran Bassil with 13 MPs, and Hezbollah's Loyalty to the Resistance bloc with 15 MPs. Together, these account for 43 votes opposing Aoun's candidacy.  
 
The Strong Republic bloc, comprising 19 MPs, has made its support for Aoun conditional on his formal nomination by the Development and Liberation bloc and Hezbollah. Without this alignment, their votes remain withheld.  

Additionally, at least eight independent and Change MPs have voiced their disapproval of any constitutional amendment for a single individual, maintaining a principled position. These include MPs Melhem Khalaf, Cynthia Zarazir, Osama Saad, and Paula Yacoubian, who has clarified her stance, though she does not oppose Aoun's potential election. 

However, MP Halime El Kaakour views the 86-vote scenario as a constitutional violation despite her respect for Aoun. Elias Jarade, while voting for Aoun in the second round, will cast his first-round vote for Ziad Baroud. 
  
Notably, Deputy Parliament Speaker MP Elias Bou Saab Elias Bou Saab has confirmed he will not vote for Aoun, and MP Bilal Houshaymi opposes any constitutional amendment, citing concerns over the track record of military leaders. 

When tallying these numbers, a clear majority of 70 MPs currently oppose Aoun's election. 

Since Aoun, as a senior public official, would require a constitutional amendment supported by at least 86 votes in the first round, the numbers remain unfavorable.  

Should the political dynamics remain unchanged, discussions may pivot to alternative candidates capable of securing the necessary 86 votes in the first round.