It is impossible to understate the significance of the European judicial delegation's visit to Lebanon, just as it is impossible to rely internally on the findings of the European investigations.
They won't have any direct, practical effects on the country's financial or economic situation, and it won't even be able to impose rulings against Lebanese officials or banking sides.
The most significant aspect of the arrival of the European judges and the judicial conflicts between those who want to facilitate their mission, those who try to obstruct it, and those who object to it, under the guiding principle of refusing to harm sovereignty, remind in some way, of the divisive engagement mechanism that Lebanon witnessed with the creation of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon.
Even though this tribunal did not directly affect the rulings, but established some constants and provided a wealth of information.
This brings to mind also the conflict in Lebanon over how the Beirut port explosion was investigated.
International financial security
As a result, the visit and investigations of the European delegation can be compared to a fact-finding committee that will not establish courts or issues any rulings.
However, it will demonstrate the international community's commitment to viewing Lebanon as a failed state and maintain pressure on the Lebanese government to reveal all of its treasuries and financial movement secrets, along with careful monitoring of money laundering operations.
The international community, therefore, sees Lebanon as one of the countries outside the global financial system.
Additionally, several nations consider the bombing at the Beirut port to be a danger to global trade and security. There was, therefore, excitement about looking into what happened, even though the investigations were not made public and would not lead to trials or indictments.
Long years
European judges attempt to financially and legally navigate "the Lebanese caves." Follow-up sources indicate that investigations cover all financial transactions over a long period, going back to when funds were smuggled from Iraq to Lebanon and Libya after the revolution and the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi's government.
Investigations also concentrate on significant international money transfers made following Lebanon's October 17 revolution.
The investigations follow claims by Lebanese and foreigners that an agreement between Lebanon and the International Monetary Fund will not be reached as the Lebanese initially reject such an agreement and its terms.
Second, there is a widespread belief on a global scale that what the Lebanese actors are doing in conjunction with the governor of the Central Bank is intended to avoid signing the agreement with the fund and instead to let the financial market regulate itself, even though this may take more than three years.
This is based on the principle of dollarization of the economy and markets, in exchange for the central bank governor following a policy of debt repayment through the mechanisms he devises to close many financial accounts, which will be at the expense of depositors in return for maintaining the banks.
Pressure card
This conviction which is being formed internationally about Lebanon's evasion of concluding an agreement with the Monetary Fund and adhering to its terms prompts international powers interested in Lebanon and who want to prevent any financial effects emanating from it on other countries to seriously consider devising a mechanism in the medium term to reach a formula where a monetary engagement with money is abandoned and the return to adopting banks as the sole destination for financial movement.
In this context, the European investigations that look into the movement of funds fall.
Beyond that, these investigations and the implicit internal and external acknowledgment that Lebanon is a nation outside the international financial system and a hotbed for money laundering will all serve as a fundamental and powerful pressure card for nations to impose stringent requirements for agreeing to engage in any political settlement or to give the country the assistance it needs to emerge from the crisis.
This will cause a delay in reaching a settlement due to the immaturity of Lebanon's internal conditions, both politically and financially, amid the unwillingness of external powers to engage in or sponsor a political process without determining the political and financial direction of what will result from that settlement.