The visit of the "Marada Movement" head, Sleiman Frangieh, to Paris and his meeting with the presidential adviser, Patrick Durel, at the request of the French, has led to fear of Paris possibly declaring a settlement or the possibility of Paris informing the Zgharta leader of their surrender and not pushing for his name due to Saudi Arabia's hardline stance.
As a result, caution prevailed among all political parties, with no allies of Frangieh portraying the invitation as a point in their favor and no opponents eager to speak negatively about it.
Hesitation prevailed on both sides regarding the acceleration of developments in the region and the lack of clarity about their impact on the Lebanese file.
On the evening before yesterday, Frangieh returned to Beirut after two days of anticipation.
He indeed appeared very relaxed to those who spoke to him after his return, but he was also realistic.
He did not return with the presidency in his pocket, nor did he return without it.
"Things are still the same and need time," he said.
The most important thing that was quoted Frangieh as saying after his return was that the French had assured him that "the discussion about your nomination with others is not completely closed," as his close associates said.
They emphasized the need not to exaggerate the estimates and that Frangieh "is, for the French, at the top of the list of candidates, but they are also talking to others."
Nevertheless, the visit gained importance because it came following several developments, including:
- The contact that tackled the Lebanese file between President Emmanuel Macron and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
- The visit of the leader of the Progressive Socialist Party, Walid Jumblatt, to Paris to meet with the director of French intelligence, Bernard Emie, to convince the French that the Frangieh settlement is unlikely to succeed due to the Saudi and internal Christian positions.
- The dangerous sectarian dispute on the backdrop of the "battle on the hour" and the significant dispute in the parliament during the joint committees' meeting.
- The US initiative undertaken by Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf, who visited several capitals in the region, including Beirut, where she emphasized the completion of the presidential election as a gateway to launching the reform process through a fully empowered government. Her remarks coincide with information attributed to US Ambassador to Beirut, Dorothy Shea, who stated that the US does not support one presidential candidate over another and will deal with whoever is elected.
Prominent political sources confirmed that "what has been confirmed from the visit so far is the notification of Frangieh that his name as a candidate is still at the top of the French list, without giving him the impression that regional developments may have changed in his favor."
He heard from the French that they had yet to be able to break the Saudi blockade around him and that Riyadh's position towards him had stayed the same. Still, they continue to support him in conjunction with the following:
- First, an Egyptian initiative that proposes the formation of a 5+1 group aimed at including Iran in the quintet group that is responsible for tackling the Lebanese file (the US, France, Qatar, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia), with meetings moving to Riyadh as a positive and reassuring step for the kingdom.
- Secondly, during his presence in Paris, Emie informed Jumblatt of the insistence on sticking with Frangieh, despite the latter's attempt to convince him of the difficulty of Frangieh reaching the presidency.
- Thirdly, the coordination that Paris is carrying out with internal Lebanese forces that support the nomination of Frangieh and the agreement that the latter will officially announce his candidacy after preparing his program in a way that answers all the questions related to several files, and he will be reassured, starting from dealing with the Prime Minister and the Syrian refugee files, border control, and the political, economic, and financial reform agenda. Notably, Frangieh still links this nomination to obtaining a positive Saudi signal.
- Fourthly, a Qatari initiative will be launched by Minister of State at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Mohammed bin Abdulaziz bin Saleh Al Khulaifi, who arrived in Beirut last night, to keep in touch with all political forces and explore potential settlement prospects regarding the presidential candidate's name. It is noteworthy that the Qataris, according to informed sources, are more pragmatic and realistic in dealing with the presidential file.
All of this comes in the context of internal escalation against Frangieh, as stated by the Lebanese Forces party leader, Samir Geagea, during the mass for the rest of the "Zahle martyrs."
He addressed those who "blackmail us every time, and force us to choose between their candidate or the void," stating that "any candidate from the resistance axis, no matter what his name or identity is, is void itself, and his tenure will only be a continuation of the first part of the previous tenure."
Prominent sources confirmed to "al-Akhbar" that "the high escalation by Geagea came at the request of the Saudi ambassador to Beirut, Walid al-Bukhari, and this escalation is also translated into media and political campaigns against the French role."
"Arguing that the Christian position supports the Kingdom's inflexible stance and strengthens its argument for not backing down on Frangieh's rejection, while the other side insists on him, based on the principle that the position of the Shiite duo supporters is met with a position of rejection from the Christian duo, making it difficult to reach a settlement that allows for his election," the same sources added.
The sources considered that "the Saudi request is part of investing in the Christian position, especially since the escalation is needed at a time when negotiations are advancing, as the Kingdom perceives that Iran will not pressure Hezbollah on the presidential file and that the party is not about to back down on Frangieh."