Why Saudi Arabia's Syrian policy will not impact Lebanese situation

The New York statement still forms a turning point in Saudi policy towards Lebanon, according to some sources.

While Riyadh's "zero-problems" policy toward Syria means it is too early to talk about the outcomes of dialogues with Syria.

This article was originally published in, translated from the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar.

Thus, regarding what is happening between Arab countries and Syria, especially from the Saudi side, some informed sources noted that the Saudi internal situation should deal with Saudi Arabia today as different from the one that left Lebanon, Syria, and the region amid the crises.

The same sources explained that the "old" Saudi Arabia no longer exists, with all its internal and external effects concerning Lebanon and the region, especially the financial one. 

Therefore, it is difficult to understand Lebanese positions towards what is happening along the Riyadh-Damascus file in two completely contradictory ways.

In this context, some sources explained what is happening as a Syrian and Iranian surrender to Riyadh, and others see it as if Riyadh is offering concessions to Damascus and Tehran. Thus, we should not reach early conclusions.

Furthermore, the Saudi-Iranian agreement should not be considered an isolated event and the first in a file that has seen attempts and contacts.

In addition, the change in leadership in Saudi Arabia is coupled with its latest attempt to outline a foreign policy that is clear and based on "zero problems."

What happened recently in Iran is a continuation of meetings that have taken place between both countries for a considerable time before being publicly announced.

Moreover, the matter is entirely different in Lebanon and Syria due to international and regional factors. While some forces rushed to exploit the agreement with Iran in the interest of the presidential settlement in Lebanon, the Arab efforts in the matter of Syria appeared to multiply the chances that the allies of both parties are trying to exploit in promoting the success of one axis at the expense of another and imposing its repercussions on Beirut. But this is not the case in Saudi Arabia.

A Saudi map in Syria?

According to some sources, the quick creation of a Saudi map in Syria requires caution, firstly because portraying Syria's return to the Arab League as the end of a phase and the beginning of a new one is an exaggeration of its circumstances, especially since Damascus faces more significant internal and international challenges than just the decision to return to the League.

Attempts are still underway by Arab politicians to find a solution to the ongoing Syrian crisis, but practical tools for resolution are not readily available. The recent consultation meeting of the Gulf Cooperation Council, along with Egypt, Jordan, and Iraq, failed to develop a clear final vision for Syria. How can Saudi Arabia or other Arab states bypass international decisions, especially UN Resolution 2254, and what would be the stance of the United States and the United Nations in such a scenario?

Moreover, how can the US and European sanctions on Syria be bypassed? These sanctions have been linked to regional and international parties present in various parts of Syria. It is early to say that Saudi Arabia is eager to launch an international campaign to lift all sanctions against Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad.

Such an endeavor would require a high price paid by Saudi Arabia and Arab states to change the US and UK stances toward Syria.

However, it is logical to approach this situation cautiously, especially when considering Washington's reaction, given that Europe and the United States are still in a conflict with Russia over Ukraine, which supports Syria. Additionally, the final position of Iran on any Syrian action regarding refugees and the political process remains unclear.

Saudi Arabia's position on Syria should not be misinterpreted when analyzing the potential Saudi-Syrian dialogue's impact on Lebanon.

The regional arenas should not be separated after the agreement with Iran, which is still being tested. Therefore, any new developments in the communication with Damascus should not be considered as an introduction to a change in Lebanon that favors Syria and Iran.

Saudi Arabia's position on Lebanon remains separate from any other arena, within the framework of the basic principle expressed in the New York Statement issued in September last year.

Until now, Saudi Arabia's stance has not changed regarding its outlook expressed in the mentioned statement before and after the agreement with Iran and before and after the Arab dialogues. The second principle is the need for caution among allies and adversaries in reaching conclusions since what is happening is still in its early stages.