A candidate who represents all opposition factions, former minister Jihad Azour will undoubtedly be the winner of the votes over the "resistance axis" candidate, head of the Marada Movement, Sleiman Frangieh.
This article was originally published in and translated from Lebanese newspaper Nidaa al-Watan.
Despite the difference in votes between Azour and Frangieh according to the statistical intersection, this team is moving forward to reject the result in advance, even if the opposition candidate receives 65 votes.
This opens the door to speculation about the means this team will adopt to maintain control of the presidential election at any cost.
As a preemptive measure against any attempt to disrupt the election at the security level, sources told Nidaa al-Watan that the Lebanese Army would take strict measures outside the parliament to prevent any security breaches aimed at diverting the course of the election.
Following the "defamatory speech" delivered by Sleiman Frangieh on Sunday, expressing anger towards all political forces rejecting to dictate the [Shiite] duo's for his candidacy, Azour issued a presidential statement in which he pledged to exert all his expertise to lead the rescue "workshop."
While the "pointage" surrounding Azour hovers around 60 votes, the neutrality of the Moderation Bloc has been confirmed, and the majority of the Change MPs' decision remains unclear, while the Shiite duo evaluated the situation significantly for June 14.
According to these circles, there is "nothing new, and the session has been loaded more than it can bear." They said, "It is a session to reject Jihad Azour's nomination. It is a session to nominate him without a result. There is a candidate who has been rigged with the aim of "sabotaging" the session, but our expected outcome is to "sabotage" his nomination in exchange for our candidate's continuity."
It added that "The weak parliamentary blocs supporting him will disintegrate while our bloc gains strength. The number of his supporters will decrease while the number of our candidate's supporters will increase."
According to calculations carried out by the Shiite duo, the sources said, "It is expected that Azour will receive approximately fifty votes or slightly more, and our candidate will achieve the same number, and things will remain the same."
They added, "Even if Azour gets 65 votes in the first round, which is impossible, there will be no change," according to these circles, which cast doubt on "the opposition's continued agreement on Azour."
They concluded by saying, "No one has a scenario after the June 14 session, and Azour will withdraw from the competition, and we will reassess the situation. We are committed to Frangieh's nomination."
Meanwhile, the state of fragmentation that the Sunni "arena" has been experiencing since the suspension of the political work by the leader of the "Future Movement," Saad Hariri, is not hidden from anyone.
This allowed the Shiite duo to expand further in the Sunni "field," while the wave of change attracted some of this sect's supporters, winning four Change MPs in addition to three opposition MPs.
This political fragmentation has impacted the position and national role of the Sunni community, which became a main partner in the presidential election that has taken on a sectarian character after the nomination of the Shiite duo for Frangieh.
The Christian forces lined up in the opposing camp after converging on Azour's nomination. At the same time, the "Democratic Gathering," which represents a significant position in the Druze community, decided to stand alongside the Christian forces.
At the same time, the "scattered" voices of the Sunni MPs are caught between the two alignments and amid the "confused" center.
The confusion that prevails among Sunni groups prevents them from reaching a common decision and weakens their influence, which they are well aware of.
There is a fear that when the government formation issue is put on the table, what they are sowing today in their withdrawal from the decisive decision will bear fruit.
Regarding the latest information that a number of Sunni MPs will vote "negatively" on Wednesday, that is, not to support Azour or Frangieh, and the voting will be done either by a slogan or a phrase, it appears that some of these MPs from the north have a commercial relationship with the Syrian regime on Frangieh's recommendation, while others have a close relationship with Speaker Nabih Berri and the caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, and they are part of the Moderation Bloc.