French envoy's visit and Qatari influence: Factors in Lebanon's presidential race

In a highly anticipated session that has been awaited for four months, the shape of the upcoming phase and the balance between the Hezbollah and Amal Movement alliance, supporting the nomination of Sleiman Frangieh, the leader of the Marada Movement, and his opponents rallying behind the former minister, Jihad Azour, will be determined.

It is not expected for the session to be postponed unless there is a security incident or it is deliberately instigated. Concerns arose on Tuesday when a fake grenade was discovered near the residence of MP Nadim Gemayel.

 

Therefore, the session has been meticulously planned before being called, and its outcome is known. There will be no president due to the lack of consensus on a single candidate by 86 votes and the absence of a quorum in the second round due to the withdrawal of Frangieh's supporters. The only possible development will be if Azour gathers 65 votes in case several independent and Change MPs decide to vote for him.

Based on the current data, Azour is expected to gather around 60 votes, while Frangieh will gather approximately 45.

According to the "Al-Anbaa" online newspaper, Hezbollah and Frangieh are making intensive efforts to communicate with blocs and MPs to gain their support. Still, these attempts will not increase Frangieh's supporters to exceed the threshold of 50 votes at best, leaving Azour in the lead.

If the session proceeds, it will impose a new reality and confirm the obstruction charges against Frangieh and his supporters. Although Azour might fail to secure 65 votes in the first round, several MPs have declared their intention to support the candidate with the highest number of votes in the second round, which could enable Azour to win the presidential race.

Furthermore, Wednesday's session will increase the pressure on the Amal-Hezbollah duo that rejects any dialogue or alternative figure other than Frangieh.

Meanwhile, attention will also turn to the Strong Lebanon bloc and the commitment of its members to vote for Azour. There have been rumors that around five MPs are hesitating to cast their votes for him for various reasons, including "impossible exoneration" and electoral calculations, as some of these MPs have succeeded with the support of Hezbollah. According to sources from "Al-Anbaa" online newspaper, former President Michel Aoun has personally intervened decisively to compel all MPs to comply with the bloc's decision, but there is no definite answer.

Member of the Renewal Bloc, MP Adib Abdel Massih, stated, "Azour will surely gather 60 votes, and it is likely that all members of the Strong Lebanon bloc will commit to voting for him, awaiting the results of the ballot box."

In an interview with "Al-Anbaa" online newspaper, he pointed out that "Azour may not win to become president in the session, but the election result will intensify the pressure, and confirm the unity of the opposition in general, and the Christians in particular, and this would strengthen the opposition and improve its negotiating position."

Moreover, Abdel Massih also addressed the security development related to Gemayel. He indicated that "there are security warnings, and the situation requires caution and vigilance, especially with the presence of a deadly weapon in the country. However, simultaneously, I expect decreased tension after the session."

In conclusion, Wednesday's session will end with solidifying the new balances. Still, it will not be the solution to the presidential dilemma awaiting the expected diplomatic movements in the upcoming days with the visit of French envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian and the possibility of the Qatari action returning to the Lebanese arena.