Fast-track support: UNIFIL exit drives urgent push to reinforce Lebanese Army

Report by Bassam Abou Zeid, English adaptation by Yasmine Jaroudi

The decision to hold an international conference on March 5 to support the Lebanese Army and Internal Security Forces (ISF) has been hastened by the planned complete withdrawal of the U.N. peacekeeping mission, UNIFIL, from Lebanon by the end of this year.

Under scenarios being discussed by Lebanon's international and regional sponsors, the complete withdrawal of UNIFIL would coincide with the conclusion of the weapons-collection process across Lebanese territory and the achievement of a security agreement between Lebanon and Israel. 

That arrangement would be accompanied by the deployment of a new international force south of the Litani River, composed of European troops. France, Italy, Spain, Germany, Britain, and Russia have all expressed readiness to contribute forces, according to informed sources.

However, Lebanese officials fear that UNIFIL could withdraw without a viable alternative in place, before the disarmament process is completed, a security agreement is finalized, and the Lebanese Army is sufficiently reinforced in personnel and equipment. 

Such a scenario, they warn, would significantly raise the risk of clashes between the Lebanese and Israeli armies. It could also allow armed groups to reassert themselves in the border area, potentially plunging the region back into instability and triggering Israeli military responses.

Concerns have also been raised in international and regional discussions about the Lebanese Army's current capacity to move into a second phase of the weapons-collection plan. 

With around 10,000 troops already deployed south of the Litani River, questions persist over how the army would secure the manpower needed for subsequent phases: whether by redeploying those forces northward, by pulling units away from the Syrian border, or by reducing deployments tasked with maintaining internal security.

These constraints have prompted the countries backing the upcoming support conference to expand its scope to include assistance for Lebanon's ISF, enabling them to assume greater responsibility for domestic security. This, in turn, would allow the army to focus on border duties and the disarmament process, particularly as UNIFIL is expected to begin handing over some of its positions to the Lebanese Army as part of its drawdown.

Since November, budget cuts at the United Nations have already led to the departure of about 1,800 UNIFIL troops from various contingents, though no positions have been fully evacuated. Two naval vessels tasked with monitoring Lebanese territorial waters have also withdrawn, prompting the Lebanese navy to step up its operations.