Debate within Israeli military leadership: Preemptive strike or delay in escalating tensions with Hezbollah?

With increasing tensions between Israel and Hezbollah over Israel's annexation of the Lebanese part of the border town of al-Ghajar and the threat of military action to remove the remaining tent set up by Hezbollah inside the Lebanese Shebaa Farms, and before the incident of a bomb being thrown at Hezbollah members, injuring three of them yesterday afternoon, the Israeli newspaper "Jerusalem Post" revealed an ongoing discussion within the Israeli army leadership regarding whether war will inevitably escalate in the coming days and whether it is wise to launch a preemptive strike or delay the conflict for as long as possible and simply respond to any attack by Hezbollah.

Military Operation?
The Israeli newspaper states that senior Israeli military leaders are currently debating whether they will use force to remove the tent, which, relatively speaking, does not pose significant problems in terms of size and threat from the Shebaa Farms. 
If the decision is made to use force, the question remains about the extent of force and the specific timing for it.

Initially, most senior Israeli officers agreed, according to "Jerusalem Post," on attempting to convince Hezbollah to remove the two tents it set up over a month ago using diplomacy through UNIFIL. 

 

 

However, after all this time and with Hezbollah only removing one of its tents, an increasing number of senior Israeli officers want to resolve this issue by force, without further delay quickly. Some even expressed clear support for a wide-scale military operation during ongoing discussions.

On the other hand, other Israeli officers still prefer prolonged negotiations, even several more months, believing that withdrawing media coverage from the issue would convince Hezbollah to withdraw, especially if specific incentives are offered.

Motives for War
In explaining the ongoing debate among Israeli officers, the newspaper indicates that those who see war with Hezbollah as inevitable and prefer a preemptive strike cannot stress enough the necessity of confronting what they refer to as the settlement outpost in Shebaa, believing it to be highly logical. 

They are not concerned about the accidental outbreak of an unnecessary war since they assume that a significant conflict is only a matter of time. In such a case, they prefer Israel to take the initiative, prepare the battleground, and be able to leverage the element of surprise.

Regarding the reason that drives a significant number of officers to encourage a military operation to remove the tent, the newspaper attributes it to the admission of Northern Command Chief Major General Uri Gordin, who acknowledged Hezbollah's ability to launch around 4,000 rockets daily in the early days of a potential war against northern Israel, including Haifa, Tiberias, and other key locations. 

It is worth noting that during the 2014 Gaza war, the Israeli army stated that Hamas launched about 4,500 rockets at Israel during the entire 50-day period, equivalent to 90 rockets per day.

Based on this, Israeli military leaders who support the idea of a military operation believe that Hezbollah's missile capabilities can be significantly reduced through a preemptive operation that destroys its communication networks and some of its long-range weapons.

Nasrallah Avoids Conflict

The newspaper reveals the presence of other Israeli military leaders who believe that Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah is the most deterrent leader Israel faces today. 

Despite acknowledging that Nasrallah agreed to the attack on Majidou in March and engaged his party in several minor clashes with Israeli border control forces, as well as allowing Palestinian groups to launch rockets from southern Lebanon, this does not necessarily mean he is prepared to risk a major confrontation.

As Israeli military forces surround Mount Hermon and have no Israeli settlers, these officers, according to "Jerusalem Post," see no reason to resort to military action to resolve the tent issue, especially since they recognize Hezbollah's ability to inflict more damage on Israel's civilian internal front than ever before.

Hochstein in Tel Aviv
In addition, the newspaper "Israel Hayom" reported that a meeting took place between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US envoy Amos Hochstein, discussing the intentions of the Lebanese government to start developing gas fields and the tension on the northern borders, along with various regional issues.

Israeli media outlets mentioned a meeting between Hochstein and Israeli National Security Advisor Meir Ben-Shabbat, which touched on the possibility of demarcating the land borders with Lebanon, including al-Ghajar and Shebaa Farms.

Channel 12 of Israel reported that the United States offered Israel a proposal that would require Hezbollah to remove the tent from the border in exchange for the Israeli army halting the construction of the security fence it began in the village of al-Ghajar, part of which is on the Lebanese side.