Faltering French Influence: Paris's Struggles in Lebanese Politics Amidst Regional Challenges

Paris has put itself in an unfavorable position. Its role has been shaken after it endorsed the candidacy of Sleiman Frangieh, the leader of the "Marada Movement" and an ally of Hezbollah. Despite retracting this support, Paris hasn't been able to rebuild trust with most internal parties. The French role in Lebanon has become secondary and unable to change the course of events.

There is no more obvious form of mockery than what Maronite Patriarch Bechara Boutros al-Rahi expressed regarding the French approach in Lebanon. 

He criticized the questions posed by the French envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian to the deputies in his Sunday sermon, implying the "shallow" nature to which the French role had sunk. 

 

The patriarch's criticism of the French approach was a painful blow to all Le Drian’s efforts, and in his sermon, the patriarch seemed to say to France, which boasts of its 1789 revolution and its export of democracy and laws, "Come, let us remind you how elections are conducted. It is the ballot box that elects a president, not the questions and answers."

It is not hidden from anyone Bkerke’s criticism of the French role. Church sources confirmed to "Nidaa al-Watan" newspaper that the patriarchate appreciates the replacement of the "Élysée brokers" team with the French envoy Le Drian, who is held in high regard by Berke. 

However, despite this step, the Church did not foresee any positive outcomes due to the absence of French influence in the Lebanese arena and Paris's inability to provide a solution.

According to the viewpoint of Bkerke, Paris could have played a larger and more significant role had it not prioritized its interests with Iran over the interests of the Lebanese people. 

But its past policies have left residues that Le Drian finds difficult to remove. On the other hand, if the French are sincere, they should pressure the deputies to convene in parliament and elect a new president rather than conducting an exam with questions and waiting for answers. The obstructing team has had a good relationship with Paris recently, so it might be capable of influencing it and urging it to resort to democratic means rather than relying on its strength and resorting to obstruction to impose its candidate.

Bkerke is trying not to cut all ties with the French because it believes that the primary responsibility lies with the obstructing deputies, and waiting for the external factor to elect a president is unnecessary. Since a part of the internal scene has deferred its decision to the outside, Bkerke excludes the possibility of electing a president in the near future without regional consensus.

While the stance of Bkerke and the internal political forces dealt a significant blow to the French, the absence of encouraging signals from Saudi Arabia and the United States remains fundamental. 

Diplomatic sources confirm the return of regional tension and explain the recent days of media exchanges. The Lebanese scene has not been affected by the Saudi-Iranian understanding, but there has been a cooling of the atmosphere. 

In recent days, the media and political confrontation have resumed, as Riyadh sees its confrontation with Hezbollah as separate from its understanding with Tehran. Therefore, the intensity of the clash between Riyadh and Hezbollah has returned, and it is unknown whether a return to calm is possible.

On the other hand, there has been no change in the US position, and the decision remains the same: not to elect a president who serves Iran and the "Resistance Axis." 

If such a president were elected, the Americans wouldn't object, but there would be no financial assistance from Arab or Western countries. 
Consequently, the US and Saudi firmness have returned to what it was, inhibiting the French role and shifting the negotiations on the presidential file back to the initial square, placing it in the hands of Washington, Riyadh, and Tehran.

All factors converge to eliminate hopes for electing a president soon, indicating an extension of the vacuum unless a miracle disrupts the lethal stagnation.