Lebanon prepares for a new wave of Syrian refugees amidst ongoing crisis

Amidst the pressing concerns affecting every Lebanese citizen's life, the Syrian refugee crisis remains a persistent challenge with no immediate resolution.

However, recent developments suggest that Lebanon is preparing to receive a new wave of migrants fleeing from Syria.

This article is originally published in, translated from Lebanese newspaper Nidaa Al-Watan.

Various political factions have taken up the issue of resolving the Syrian refugee crisis, asserting the possibility of finding a solution. Hezbollah and the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) are notable among these factions. Yet, the underlying motive for raising the matter appears to be driven by political gains, particularly in attempting to bolster the regime of President Bashar al-Assad.

Had there been genuine intentions, Hezbollah could have effectively tackled the displacement of refugees from Qalamoun and neighboring villages. These individuals had settled between Arsal and Baalbek. Still, they were compelled to flee when Hezbollah gained control of areas near the Lebanon-Syria border, triggering a massive wave of displacement into Lebanon.

Similarly, under former President Michel Aoun's leadership, the FPM aligned with the Assad regime to an extent where Assad favored Aoun over Sleiman Frangieh, the head of the Marada Movement, in 2016.

Why did Aoun not address the refugee crisis during his presidency?

On the other hand, no positive signs emanate from Western countries, indicating a swift resolution to the displacement issue.

Instead, Europe and international organizations, which infringe upon Lebanon's sovereignty, are supporting Syrians at the expense of the Lebanese population to facilitate refugee settlement. This is evident through international bodies' education and aid programs, which have contributed significantly to the refugees' prolonged stay in Lebanon.

While the initial waves of displacement were primarily attributed to security concerns and conflict, Lebanon is now witnessing an influx of refugees driven by Syria's economic crisis.

As subsidies were lifted and the Syrian lira crumbled, renewed protests in Syria, ignited in Sweida and demanding regime change, have caused an economic ripple effect felt in Lebanon, which seems to provide a financial lifeline to some.

Furthermore, security sources reveal Syria's deteriorating economic situation has rapidly translated into a noticeable surge of refugees towards Lebanon. Syrians find it relatively easy to cross into Lebanon due to familiarity with the country, its language, and established connections. Some even have relatives or business interests that have led them to Lebanon.

These sources affirm that illicit migration across the Lebanese-Syrian border has intensified over the past couple of weeks, organized by networks that security agencies are striving to apprehend. This migration mainly occurs along the eastern border, extending from Chebaa to areas where official checkpoints are absent.

While the Lebanese Army is diligently working to minimize the threat posed by this wave of displacement, its efforts remain challenged by the country's economic situation, limited resources, and a shortage of personnel.

Thus, the focus shifts to internal monitoring, where refugee camps and congregations are closely watched.

Yet, the Lebanese Army alone cannot effectively secure the borders and fulfill internal tasks. This complex issue necessitates the coordinated efforts of all security agencies to combat clandestine border crossings. Recent evidence of the danger was manifested when Lebanese Army units thwarted the attempted entry of over 700 Syrians into Lebanese territory in the past week.

The current scale of the refugee influx poses a significant challenge to security agencies, with potential numbers potentially reaching thousands.

The influx could escalate from a few thousand to tens or hundreds of thousands, all within Lebanon's weakened state. This human exodus follows the surge of Syrian goods into Lebanese markets following the Syrian pound's collapse, severely impacting Lebanese production while the state's absence is glaring.

Dealing with such situations requires more than security measures alone; political considerations are equally vital.

The resurgence of turmoil in Syria would enable the Syrian regime to export its economic, political, and security crises to Lebanon. The Lebanese landscape today is vastly different from that of 2011.