Qatar's mediation in Lebanon's presidential crisis

In its internal and external dimensions, the presidential file continues to be shrouded in negative ambiguity, with contradictions among the conflicting parties resurfacing while awaiting clarity on settlement movements in the region.

This article was originally published in, translated from the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar.

This comes especially after major players in Lebanon witnessed a significant shift in the American-Saudi stance, rejecting the French settlement aimed at electing Sleiman Frangieh as president in exchange for choosing a prime minister from the share of Hezbollah's opponents.

As usual, Qatar seizes opportunities when the initial stakeholders fail to reach a solution. Beirut is currently witnessing a new round of talks conducted by a Qatari envoy in search of potential ways to elect a president through "consensus" among all political components.

The Qatari envoy, Abu Fahd Jassem Al-Thani, arrived in Beirut last week and began his tour by meeting with the political assistant to Hezbollah's Secretary-General, Hajj Hussein Al-Khalil.

Sources from the Lebanese groups opposing the Frangieh option understand that Qatar wants to engage in a private dialogue with Hezbollah and has informed those concerned that there is no possibility of any agreement without preparing the ground with the party that can facilitate the task.

However, from the first Qatari move, it is evident that Doha is avoiding repeating the Paris experience to prevent reaching a dead end. The envoy, who also met with the leader of the Free Patriotic Movement, MP Gebran Bassil, deliberately avoided direct discussion of proposed candidates.

Informed sources about recent Qatari communications referred to a "containment retreat" by abandoning the position that Qatar had always claimed, which was nominating General Joseph Aoun as the presidential candidate.

In the meetings with Al-Khalil and Bassil, the Qataris talked about new options, not including Sleiman Frangieh, "not because there is a problem with him, but because of the stance of the Christian blocs opposing him."

Moreover, the Qatari envoy emphasized that "no one is committed to the army commander as a provocative name for anyone," indicating that "we support any other name that can be agreed upon among the parliamentary blocs."

But it has been clear for a while that Qatar has been keen to include the Acting General Security Chief General Elias El-Baissari as one of the names whose stock has risen among the Qataris. While Bassil stated that he favors effective dialogue to reach a common name, Hezbollah reiterated its position to the envoy, insisting on the nomination of Frangieh.

Furthermore, the sources stated that the Qatari envoy met with several political leaders over the weekend, and their sources converged on one assessment, "Qatar's inability to make any progress on the presidential file."

They also raised several prominent questions: Has the French role ended? Will Qatar's external mandate be sufficient? Who is the real name the Doha envoy will present, and under what conditions and on what working paper?

However, the Qatari role remains a tactical performance that will not differ from the French one.

Some sources rely on the results of the contacts to highlight some facts that lead to the assessment of the difficulty of reaching a near solution, including:

- There are no regional developments on the level of understanding of a president in Lebanon, so Qatar's role remains tactical and will not differ from the French role in anything except in a favorable external environment.

- The Qatari envoy's agenda is based on the need to reach a settlement candidate without waiting for external interventions. This is an unrealistic proposal, especially since no significant party in Lebanon considers itself constrained to give up its candidate or high ceilings.

- Qatar's reliance on its political and financial capabilities to persuade parties and individuals to accept a settlement in the hope of playing a role similar to what it played in 2008. Even if the other blocs move towards a third candidate, understanding with Hezbollah remains the foundation. This is what the Qataris understand and act upon.

As the nature of the discussions conducted by the Qatari side and the agreements it is trying to reach behind closed doors to prepare the ground for another Qatari delegation at a higher level becomes apparent, it is known that Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, who will meet Abu Fahd this week, remains committed to his initiative and will call for dialogue at the beginning of next month, regardless of opposing positions.