Following these incidents, negotiations progressed, leading to the demarcation agreement on October 27, 2022, three months after the events that initially hinted at a potential new conflict between Hezbollah and Israel.
During that time, the level of threats escalated, contributing to improving negotiation conditions and eventually solidifying the agreement.
The question arises whether the current military confrontations on the southern borders, connected to the ongoing war in Gaza, will repeat the same maritime demarcation scenario. Especially considering the known U.S. proposals to avoid escalation, which include limiting military escalation, halting military operations, and subsequently initiating the land demarcation process. Hezbollah insists on a ceasefire in Gaza as a precondition for halting its military operations, as emphasized in a recent speech by Hezbollah's Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, expressing readiness for war.
This occurs simultaneously with various indicators in the resistance axis suggesting preparations for escalation on multiple fronts, particularly after the U.S. and British strikes against the Houthis in Yemen. In Lebanon, Israeli threats against Hezbollah's military operations readiness persist.
A part of the negotiation mechanisms and elements involves escalation and threat, while another part, according to any miscalculation, could lead to a deterioration of the situation towards a broad confrontation. Simultaneously, alongside the verbal escalation involving the threat of a significant military escalation in the entire region, as expressed by Nasrallah, the spokesperson for the Al-Qassam Brigades, Abu Obeida, and officials from the Houthi group, sources confirm the continued exchange of messages between Washington and Tehran to prevent this escalation. This involves leveraging the threat in the negotiation field, even if it necessitates some military displays.
On the other hand, sources within the resistance axis state that the escalation wave will persist on all fronts until the Americans and Israelis are convinced of the necessity to cease the war in Gaza.
These sources indicate that the forces of the resistance are currently convinced that escalation is required on the ground. This is a statement made by officials in this axis in various councils and meetings. As for their assessments, they also consider that if the Americans and Israelis find no option but to escalate, they will engage in this confrontation forcefully.
However, these officials qualify their statements with the phrase "unless an unexpected agreement occurs." The agreement here must inevitably be between the United States and Iran.
In contrast, the Americans state that they are reassured by Iran's stance and that Tehran does not seek escalation. The Americans also work to intervene in the details of Israeli internal conflicts, discouraging any attempt by the war government led by Netanyahu to initiate or expand the war.
Tehran also relies on the Israeli-US differences regarding the approach to the war in Gaza, accelerating the transition to the third stage – easing military ground invasions, seeking to cool some fronts, and moving towards broader negotiations. This aligns with the message Washington directed to Tehran, as revealed by the Iranian ambassador in Syria, and Iran's response indicating readiness for negotiations and a lack of desire for war.