Throughout the confirmations of President Barack Obama to maintain a stable and independent Lebanon, and the determination of the Iranian Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahim, to stand alongside Lebanese people, to support his Government, the utilities and to develop national projects, Lebanon remains lost between Western agendas and regional interests of the Iranian nuclear program in the Middle East.
Is the meeting of the international community to support Lebanon in Paris, France and the participation of U.S secretary of state John Kerry came to emphasize it as American priority! And to show that there is no bargain particularly at the expense of Lebanon’s sovereignty and independence! Especially with the American failure at an earlier stage to the Syrian domination on Lebanese and regional situations! Thus international support became a necessary to stop interference in Lebanese affairs, and to prevent any attempt to convert Lebanon into an extremist’s base...In the light of dangerous shifts in Egypt.
Western influence aims to force a certain withdrawal in applying the strategic plan by “Damascus-Tehran” that will reflect negatively on the Iranian-Syrian tactic developed for the Middle East and specifically for Lebanon. The control of Iran to Lebanon as the control of the Syrian regime, will continue to be a control over its sovereign and vital institutions and over the central military decision-making center for the purpose of its use as a primary line of defense against attacks on Iran's Middle Eastern policies’ and for using Lebanon as a platform for the enforcement of Iranian foreign policies under many titles, whish one of them consist of illegibly defending the Shiite interest “outside” the context of the resistance weapon’s hegemony!
Western agendas and regional interests
Will the foreign influence in Lebanon falls in the interest of Lebanese only!? Or that foreign influence is practiced to use Lebanon as a “pressure tool” to achieve purely American objectives!!! Or the Americans are more concerned now by a heavier regional problem… the “Salafists’” political strategies in Egypt for “The Egyptian wind blew reversibly to the course of the American ships…”
The Lebanese attitude facing any foreign State policy is based exclusively on its adopted policies towards Lebanon. Iran supports Lebanon as long as Hezbollah controls the Government and America supports Lebanon depending on a specific agenda that variously allow the support of national institutions but overlook abuses of the Syrian regime and Militias members to Lebanese State if it serves the American regional interest in the Middle East, and naturally the kingdom of Saudi Arabia supports Lebanon as long as its Allies are in command.
Arab revolutions’ showed that the Arabic Centre of resistance and Israel are two sides of the same coin whish what concluded the forces of March 14 recently, referring to the boring and expired Iranian-Syrian support so-called resistance against Israel. The regional problem is different this time because of the involvement of Arab States to restore the Arab decision in the region and to have the resolution key of the Palestinian issue dispossessed by the Syrians since decades, in addition to the Lebanese claim to restore national resolution, additionally to the Egyptian problem that started to take a new trend in the means of controls of powers in the country according to “Al-Sharia rule of Law” which does not present any threats as long as these rules are only applicable on Muslims…
The current situation put Syria in confrontation with the international community. This confrontation moved after the year 2005 to a direct one between the international community and Tehran, and because of the Syrian crisis, shifted to an exclusive one with Iran. Never the less, the situation of the Syrian crisis, led to a decline in its political influence but not in its military one on Lebanese soil, especially when any potential deal between Washington and Tehran on the nuclear file, cannot exceed Afghanistan and Iraq to the Lebanese file because of its privacy and complexity or to the Egyptian dilemma. So despite the inability of the Syrian authorities to eradicate the protest movement at Homs, Zabadani, rasten, Idlib regions and the disability of the "free Syrian army” to control the cities of Hama and Deir ez Zor and certain areas of Damascus and Aleppo, therefor it appears that adjusting the situation and restoring stability in Syria is not foreseeable in the near future with the clashes of the region and the complications in Egypt.
However, US administration is not enthusiastic for a military intervention in Syria and seems not to change its conviction in the near term, despite the desire of this Administration to change the Syrian regime with a view to correct the influence of regional powers which tends to benefit only Iran in the Middle East… Although it was not possible to activate an international observers presence in Syria to apply even one item in United Nation’s plan, for that even with the observers on Syrian territories, violence did not stop neither the pullout of heavy military machinery is applicable, nor the foreign press was up to cover more Syrian territories and even peaceful demonstrations are not allowed still.
It is no longer strange, the non-interference by foreign governments effectively to unify the Syrian opposition in its political program or the alternative in case of the departure of the regime. Also not helping Turkey in the implementation of its threats to the establishment of a buffer zone inside Syrian territory on its border, and did not enhance its military forces for a possible intervention in the near future because of the likelihood that the Salafists as In Iraq, Libya, Egypt, also have in Syria a deep hand in the violence weather it is called “Daech or Nosra”... Therefore, international participation was limited only by some officers of the Special British Forces and French intelligence for training officers and members of the "Syrian free army ", in order to create a change in the equation of the confrontation between the authorities and the Syrian opposition; For these same reasons also it does not seem that the Kremlin wants to accomplish a breach in the wall of the Syrian crisis in the light of the current regional facts on the ground.
And what raises suspicions from one point of view is that forces of March 14 bowed to the current changes, and did not mount a counter attack, after the decline of Bkirki’s support, and restricted its movement in the framework of disputes in the House of Representatives.
On the other hand and despite the fact that the Lebanese government is been eaten by deficit in the management of the minimum demands of life and living, and is surrounded by sit-ins, strikes it do not find any political party to launch the so-called mercy killing bullet to re-shuffle the deck and to find a new balance of powers in the country even thou with the new government formation. The international community does not want at this stage to touch the internal stability of Lebanon, for their concern is focused more on the clarity in Syrian and Egyptian situations, therefore the recent problems in Tripoli will not extend north Lebanon’s border for the moment, but it is a dangerous indicator indeed.
The trap weapons
In addition to that, sending armed ships to Beirut 0r Turkey for regional needs threatens all international efforts to stop the violence and military operations in Syria, and thus the loss of United Nation’s peace plan. The same Arab agencies who called to stop fighting and violence were behind
the financing; inevitably this will kill any future solution to the peaceful agreement by the Syrian people.
The weapons take normaly a course from Libya, Turkey, and Egypt to Lebanon, what leeds to wonder about how the weapon vessels crossed, three harbors and what happens in Turkey! And why it was not discovered in the port of Alexandria? And how the vessels that smuggles weapons cross all this distance without the intervention of German and US Marines located outside Lebanese territorial waters! These shipments of weapons are a result of the Arab decision to arm the Syrian opposition, because the issue is not related to the smuggling of a few number of light machine guns of North Lebanon, or other areas, but related to the shipment of heavy arms and artillery as 120 mm mortars and two types of anti-tank missiles, anti-aircraft type; which poses major question marks about the audacity to send this shipment to Lebanon, and what was the sender counting on?
In the absence of new surprises, Syria seems to have entered a phase of a security and economic hemorrhage and drain, the effects of that began to appear on the governance circles in Lebanon since again it seems that Lebanese politicians still minors in managing internal political and economic crisis, without the intervene of regional powers, and Egypt has entered the stage of no a return from extremism’s patronage...
The final decision does not seem at all however in Lebanese hands, but it depends on their supporters, particularly since Lebanon turned into a land of regional conflicts, between Arabic and Western States supporting the Syrian opposition like Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United States, on one hand, and those in favor of the Syrian regime as Iran and Russia on the other hand, therefore the group that will prove itself in Syria will be the same one who affects the election law in Lebanon, and the next Presidence and this explains the spotlight and the regional and international attention on the course of the Syrian crisis; Lebanon is still the back garden of Damascus ...So far, no solution in sight to restore shattered political national interest.