There is no doubt that Lebanon has turned into a tool of regional pressure recently, an arena of foreign political conflict of interests with a political-security tension, intended internally, along with a failure of Arab Spring management externally; especially with American’s discomfort of “Iran's new agreement” to pump gas through Syria, Iraq and Lebanon, later on to some European countries; this project was to move forward with the Russians blessings at the beginning of this year, yet to be fully implemented in 2016, the U.S. political regional strategy came far from reality, for this pipeline is to become the alternative one to “Nabucco” pipeline that extends from Iraq to Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan throughout Turkey. This stream pipeline was to be replaced by the new pipeline to be implemented from Iran, Iraq, and Syria to Lebanon. This operation triggered eventually the wrath of some Gulf States, including Qatar and Turkey in particular, which was one of the reasons that drove Qatar to finance the so-called armed opposition in Syria indirectly since 2008.
It is certain that Russia will not give up Gazprom’s interests, at all costs as Gazprom is the largest Russian company, holder of hydrocarbon reserves, than any other trading energy company on the planet, its most pipelines of Gas and Oil distribution are extended in Crimea, Ukraine as it is considered a safe passage to the Middle East and Europe; Russia will not give up Assad regime as Gazprom’s interests lay deep in the heart of Damascus.
Last week an eminent European ambassador asked me: what Syria really did to tick off some of its neighbor’s anger in the Gulf and U.S foreign policy makers! Well, I had a major reply in mind to answer him, it was about the irrational approaches of western countries and some of gulfs’ have taken towards the Syrian crisis, when the same people in Europe are considered terrorists, are seen as “freedom fighters” on Syrian soil! In fact Syria did not do anything for this rage upon it; Syria simply has one of the largest resources energy in the world: Natural Gas.
The United States has a major problem now in terms of energy and economy for the value of “U.S dollar” is linked to supply and demand operations of oil and gas markets throughout the world. What will happen in the coming period when the dollar trading starts to be affected negatively by the consumption of alternative energy? Will the value of the “dollar” stays intact after the replacement of power sources gradually from oil to alternative energy, Gas?
What will happen when the new pipeline called “the Islamic pipeline” starts to project 110 million cubic meters per day instead of the current “Nabucco” pipeline? That is managed by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, European Union and Turkey!
So Syria have a bigger problem currently, not about Assad political regime, neither about ruling and democracy, nor about human rights, but about a recent discovery made by a European company in 2007 near the Lebanese-Syrian border, close to Tartus’ port; it was a large gas production area with a potential of projecting 284 billion cubic meters of gas per day. Yes this is the real problem which explains the unholy alliance of Gulfs, Europe and U.S that was not about preserving human values or democracies in the Middle East but simply about protecting the future alternative energy resources. Therefore supporting Syrian opposition and so-called freedom fighters became a must on regional and worldwide level.
Accordingly, the Americans insisted before on finalizing the ministerial statement so the new Lebanese government can be used as another political pressure tool against Syrio-Iranian-Russian equation.
Lebanese president took into his advantage U.S political pressure to form the ministerial constitutional statement, by inserting the content of a presidential declaration announced by him earlier of political aspects, to be adopted by the cabinet under the rubric of “Baabda’s declaration”.
While Hezbollah, benefited of the same U.S pressure, to include his tri-golden principles: people, army and resistance, in a delicate manner as it was substituted yesterday within the ministerial statement; what enforced this recent attitude was Israeli raid on Lebanese borders from one side and political Spacing in point of views, conflicts and disagreement on Qatar-Saudi Arabia’s tactical means, to Syrian opposition file from another side.
Qatar is trying hard to complete the implementation of a new Syrian regime through regional organizations as the "Muslim Brotherhood", while Saudi Arabia is seeking to achieve the same goals in Syria and the Arab world, through “Salafist” groups; what increased the split between Qatar and the Kingdom are rises of opposition’s complexities, for Syrian liberal opposition tends to adopt the Saudi know-how, while the remaining of the opposition forces who were already part of Damascus Declaration, tend to resort to Qatar. Organized tribal militias on the ground are closer to the rule of Riyad than the rule of Doha.
On the military Syrian opposition level, Maj. Gen. Samir Idris tends to Saudi Arabia, along with him the Islamic Front, led by Zahran Alloush, while Ahmad Tohme (Head of the Iraqi armed factions) tends to Iran, and the victory front to Qatar. Free Syrian Army rebels are engaged under the influence of Qatar and Turkey.
Therefore Saudi Arabia has sent a clear message to the Middle Eastern parties, no regional solutions outside the appropriate terms dictated only by the Kingdom who stayed actually distant even from the floundering of Palestinians factions, and from supporting the Palestinian-Palestinian reconciliation despite the Egyptian judicial decision against Hamas organization and the high price paid by the Palestinians of Gaza Strip accordingly.
From another corner U.S. pressure led Erdogan's government to crack down gradually “Daesh militia” after receiving Western reports uncovering “Daech” in gaming on thin ice between Turkish government and Assad regime. This led to new negotiations between the Turks and Iranians.
Saudi Arabia realized the American play, so it prohibited fighting “legit Jihad” outside the kingdom territories; at the same time generated a new political spasm in the Arabian Gulf, especially after including “Muslim Brotherhood” and “Daesh” organizations internationally on terror’s list.
There is no doubt that Saudi Arabia is facing today, the collapse of fighting organizations against Syrian regime and those who stand behind him from one side, and the exodus of Qatar of its obedience; with the visit of the Qatari ambassador to Lebanon bin Hamad berry to deputy secretary-general of Hezbollah, Sheikh Naim Qassem, without the Kingdom’s consent; from another side the surprise of re-opening of secret negotiations with Assad’s regime, at a time were conflicts are escalading not only between the GCCs’ and the Saudi royal family, but between Russians and Americans also.
New crisis between Russia and United States began with recent conflicts over the “new world management” according to the equation of new powers, due to the fall of unilateral U.S. political management and China's accession to this new equation to the new world management, additionally to the conflict on oil and gas between a Group of countries having one need in common... energy.
In Syria, there is a tremendous reserve of oil and gas, close to its coastline and within its territorial waters, which represents new global strategic provisions that exceeds even Iran’s national stock. Moreover, the cost of the “mainmise” on Syrian gas is lower than the cost of extracting gas from other countries. Eventually the party, who controls Syrian regime, will enjoy a stronger power in the future on international arena.
Now America is sure that balance of powers in Syria tends to Assad regime, which falls particularly into Russian interest to seize consequently Damascus riches; what led Washington to detain Russia at the most distressed spot... Crimea.
United States wants confirmation of oil fleets safe crossing through the Suez Canal that has been already dominated by non-governmental forces; especially the canal of Mount Hermes; which fell directly under Iran’s influence, otherwise it will transform Crimea, the strategic Russian corridor of gas distribution towards European countries, to a dangerous passage.
Following the Saudi Arabia's failure in the management of Arab Spring revolutions, United States has no other alternative in the region but to inflict Russia somewhere else than the Middle East to get its interests; since Qatar had split from Saoudi Arabia obedience, and opened new communication channels with the Assad regime and agreed on paying large amounts of money ensuring the release of kidnapped nuns and others, to the organization of victory Front “al-nousra”, which was initially funded by Qatar itself! As the direct financing of terrorism by some Gulf countries, became a threat to their regimes and to their credibility, facing international community, what made the kidnaping and ransom process, an important aim and reason, to ensure the indirect transfer of funds from Gulf countries into the hands of terrorists, completing the continuous spasm in Middle East.
In conclusion, Russia made it clear to the international community: Crimea is a forbidden land. This was leaked from the content of the diplomatic phone conversation between EU foreign affairs chief Catherin Ashton and Estonian foreign minister Urmas Paet on February 26.
It is obvious now, that there is way more at stake here, than democracy and human rights, it’s about destroying the culture and historical roots of Syrians in order to dominate production, transportation and use of natural gas… a main target on the radar of western strategies.