Analyzing the dynamics: Israel, Hezbollah, and the 30 percent war probability

Salem Zahran, the Director of the Media Center, clarified, "Since day one, the probability of war has been 30 percent, and that percentage remains the same today." He pointed out that "nothing has changed for two reasons:

First, there are two sides, Israel and Hezbollah, and war only happens with the consent, will, or desire of both parties. It is clear that Hezbollah does not want this war.

Second, the American, who is a critical element in the war, have informed Hezbollah through multiple intermediaries that they do not want a comprehensive war. This message has also been conveyed to the Israelis and expressed in the media."

In an interview on LBCI's "Nharkom Said" TV show, Zahran emphasized that "Hezbollah does not want this war, and it does not desire it, but it is prepared for it. The Americans do not want this war and seem unprepared for it, while the Israelis want this war but are not ready for it."

In this context, he confirmed that "any mistake could ignite the war, and the possibility of error is always present in such wars."

The director of the Media Center also noted that "Berri has raised the ceiling in negotiations, including the implementation of Resolution 1701 with the Shebaa Farms."

He believed that "we will not reach negotiations until the war in Gaza is over," pointing to "a draft that the Lebanese and Americans are seeking to agree upon."

Additionally, Zahran stated that "the American today is not discussing the essence of the issue of Hezbollah's weapons and its existence; it has reached a stage where Hezbollah has become a reality."