Turkey's presidential election results: The rise of opposition

As evident to all, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan failed to secure over 50 percent of the necessary votes in the first round to maintain his presidency, the same situation faced by his main rival and opposition candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu of the Republican Party.

Let's examine the notable changes in numbers from the 2018 elections to the present day.

In terms of percentages, President Erdogan's popularity declined from 52.49 percent in 2018, which allowed him to win in the first round, to 49.04 percent in the current round, falling short of an absolute majority.

Comparatively, Muharrem Ince, his Republican rival in 2018, received 30.64 percent of the votes, whereas today, Kilicdaroglu obtained 45 percent.

This number indicates an increase in the opposition's results, but in reality, it remains lower than their expectations or what they promised their supporters.

Kilicdaroglu gained support in the current round from the pro-Kurdish People's Democratic Party, which received 8.4 percent of the votes in the previous elections, as well as the Good Party, which garnered 7.29 percent.

Therefore, the total votes from supporting parties, in addition to the Republican Party, accounted for 46.33 percent in 2018, a figure close to what they achieved today.

This raises the question: if the opposition's votes did not significantly increase despite consolidating behind a single candidate and even declining similarly to the votes given to Erdogan, who is the new player in the 2023 elections?

The new player is the candidate Sinan Ogan, who surprised everyone by securing 5.2 percent of the votes, primarily snatching votes from Erdogan and, to a lesser extent, from Kilicdaroglu. If a second round of elections is held, Ogan's role will be decisive.

In terms of regions, the most notable changes between 2018 and today occurred in Istanbul, Ankara, the southern coastal provinces such as Antalya and Mersin, as well as Adana and Antakya, which were affected by the recent earthquake.

These regions primarily voted in favor of the opposition, except for Kahramanmaras and Gaziantep, which still supported Erdogan despite being impacted by the earthquake.

In terms of parliamentary representation, despite the decline of the Justice and Development Party and the progress of the Republican Party, the Conservative and Islamic Party alliance obtained 321 seats compared to the 213 seats won by the Republican Party and the Good Party alliance and 66 seats for the Kurdish parties.

All of these developments indicate that the conflict in Turkey remains. 

Despite the earthquake and the economic situation, it is primarily a struggle over Turkey's identity and culture before anything else.

Turkey will witness a second round of elections on May 28th.

What will Sinan Ogan do in response to that?