Erdogan Re-elected for Third Term: A Detailed Analysis

In a keenly fought contest, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has managed to secure his third term as Turkey's President, acquiring 52.16 percent of the votes, a slight drop from the 52.59 percent he won in 2018. His main contender, Kemal Kilicdaroglu of the Republican Party, garnered 47.48 percent of the votes, showing a marked increase from his 2018 score of 46.33 percent.

At a glance, the electoral landscape seems to have changed little since the last elections. However, a closer inspection reveals several significant developments. Although Erdogan emerged victorious, his party, the Justice and Development Party (AKP), without its coalitions, declined in votes from 43 percent in 2018 to 35 percent this time around.

The coalitions, particularly the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), which supported Erdogan in crucial national matters, such as the constitutional amendments, the lifting of the headscarf ban in public institutions and universities, and previous elections, played a significant role in ensuring Erdogan's comeback.

Another noteworthy observation is Erdogan's loss in economically significant regions and major cities. Contrary to the 2018 results, Erdogan lost in Ankara, the political capital (48 percent to 51 percent), and also in Istanbul, the economic hub (48.22 percent to 51.78 percent).

Further comparing the political and economic maps, which illustrate the regions contributing most to Turkey's economy, it becomes evident that the opposition holds the majority in areas that constitute Turkey's economic backbone.

In addition to Ankara and Istanbul, the opposition governs Izmir, along with all three European provinces, notably Tekirdag, and all the southern provinces along the sea, such as Antalya, Adana, Mersin, and others. These relatively liberal, somewhat non-conservative regions with a secular tendency may have swung towards the opposition due to the economic downturn experienced since 2018.

On the eve of the 2018 elections, one US dollar was valued at 4.7 Turkish lira, but ahead of the 2023 elections, the dollar stood at 20 lira.

Even the areas affected by earthquakes retained their conservative stance, despite allegations of Erdogan's lackadaisical approach to providing assistance. Erdogan remains firmly in control of Kahramanmaras, Gaziantep, and Osmaniye. In a surprising twist, the opposition, which had made progress in the first round in Antakya, lost by a slight margin in the second round, perhaps marking another setback.