Gaza's future: Israel's three proposed scenarios

As Israel grapples with the shape and timing of its ground operation in the Gaza Strip, which has seen the separation of the northern and southern parts of the region, Israeli authorities have reportedly leaked a project in the first week of the war, outlining a potential blueprint for Gaza's future.

The Israeli intelligence ministry, preempting expected proposals from Hamas within the hostages exchange negotiations, which also encompass Gaza's future, has drafted three potential scenarios.

The first scenario involves a document to evacuate the Gaza population to the Sinai Peninsula as a solution for the day following the war, potentially marking a new 'Nakba' for the Palestinians.

The evacuation plan would begin by establishing temporary tents within Sinai to accommodate Gazans. It relies on opening what the plan terms "secure passages" to enable the Palestinians to transition from Gaza to Egypt after being displaced from their homes. 

The plan also includes the construction of towns in northern Sinai, eventually becoming permanent residences for Gaza's population.

Furthermore, the Israeli document outlines the creation of a demilitarized buffer zone, known as "no man's land," spanning several kilometers into Egyptian territory, to separate Gazans from the Gaza Strip and prevent their return to the area adjacent to the Israeli border.

The Israeli document reflects the efforts of the political leadership to shape a strategy for concluding the military operation and conducting a study on how to manage the Gaza Strip after Israel's central objective in the war, which is to topple the authority of Hamas, is achieved.

The "transfer" scenario is the preferred strategic and security option for Israel.

The remaining two scenarios, either handing over the current Palestinian Authority's control of Gaza's future or transferring this future to an Arab force, will not eliminate the security threat posed by both Hamas and Hezbollah to Israel.