Normalization agreement nears: Will Saudi-Israeli normalization materialize soon?

Report by Ahmad Abdallah, English adaptation by Yasmine Jaroudi

Will the normalization agreement between Riyadh and Tel Aviv materialize soon?

According to sources cited by Bloomberg, the agreement is reportedly close to fruition. 

Under its terms, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia would receive security assurances from the United States and assistance in the nuclear field for civilian purposes. In return, diplomatic relations with Israel would be established, as reported by Reuters.

The proposed agreement, expected to be presented by Washington to Benjamin Netanyahu, leaves the Israeli Prime Minister with the option to either join or remain outside the accord.

While discussions of impending normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel are not new, the current context differs significantly. 

However, the events before October 7 were a lot different such as the Al-Aqsa Flood Operation and the Israeli offensive on Gaza, which have reignited negotiations, nullifying a previously prepared agreement. What is being discussed now represents a new formulation of terms.

The old and new formulations of the agreement are shrouded in secrecy, with neither side officially commenting on its items. Saudi Foreign Minister's previous statement links any agreement with Israel to a two-state solution and the protection of the Palestinian people.

The proposed normalization agreement between Riyadh and Tel Aviv primarily serves American strategic interests. 

President Biden seeks to notch a diplomatic victory ahead of the upcoming challenging elections in November, as emphasized by the recent visit of Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Saudi Arabia.

Netanyahu aims to secure for Israel what it has long awaited: relations with the largest economy in the Middle East and the mother of Arab and Muslim nations.

Nonetheless, Saudi Arabia exhibits less enthusiasm for this agreement. 

According to Bloomberg, the Saudi Crown Prince is wary of its potential impact on relations with Donald Trump, should he win the presidency again, given his pivotal role in the initial steps of normalization between Israel and Arab states—the Abraham Accords.

Meanwhile, concerns within certain sides in the US Congress persist regarding Saudi Arabia's human rights record, particularly concerning the Crown Prince, and allegations of human rights violations in the Jamal Khashoggi case, among others. 

Additionally, there are fears about US commitment to an agreement that Israel might not join, placing the Biden administration in a precarious position.

While the details remain elusive, several indicators suggest the agreement's proximity. 

Analysts believe such an agreement could significantly alter the political landscape in the Middle East and reshape alliances.