The Early Call for UK General Elections: Factors Influencing Voter Decisions

A report by Raneem Bou Khzam, English adaptation by Nadine Sassine 


When British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called for an early general election in the country, he still had until January 2025 to make this call. 

The early call, which surprised part of his Conservative Party, is analyzed to be because Sunak managed to slightly reduce inflation, betting on this achievement to improve his party's image among the public, despite his declining popularity.

So, what factors will the British consider when heading to the polls to elect 650 MPs?

The first factor is the economy. The cost of living has risen significantly, including the cost of groceries, heating and fuel, as well as housing prices and rents. These problems, caused by several events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, Brexit, and the war in Ukraine, have introduced a new consideration for voters: the growth rate. In 2023, the growth rate in Britain did not exceed 0.5%.

The state of the healthcare system will also be a crucial factor in these elections, along with immigration, which is one of the most prominent issues. In 2022, legal immigration to the UK reached 745,000 people, while illegal immigration amounted to 46,000 people. Although the immigration issue works in favor of the Conservative Party, which opposes it, this alone is not enough to secure a majority in the House of Commons.

The competition in this election includes several parties, but the main rival is the Labor Party, which polls suggest will end the Conservative rule that has lasted since 2010. The Labor Party will leverage the poor economic situation to attack its opponent, adding to it the scandals involving Conservative politicians, such as the "partygate" scandal where former Prime Minister Boris Johnson held parties during the COVID-19 lockdown, violating the no-gathering rules.

So, can it be said that Sunak has sewn the end of his party's rule? This is what observers suggest, while the final decision will be made on July 4th.