Israel's assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah: A turning point for the Middle East?

Report by Amal Shehadeh, English adaptation by Yasmine Jaroudi

When the Mossad received final intelligence confirming the presence of Hezbollah's Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah and the party's senior leadership at a compound in Beirut's southern suburbs, Israel decided to launch the assassination operation, code-named "New Order."

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who was in New York then, was informed of the plan during a virtual meeting with military and security leaders. He approved the strike.

Israel's Air Force command center coordinated the mission, monitoring each stage of the operation from the moment the F-15 fighter jets took off from a military base toward the target. The jets launched 83 GBU-28 bunker-buster bombs, totaling 83 tons, toward the compound. 

Less than an hour later, Israel announced that the strike had targeted Nasrallah.

"The exceptional operation, designed to change the face of the Middle East, was aimed at preventing the need for a ground invasion of Lebanon." This was the initial Israeli assessment of the assassination, a plan the Mossad and military intelligence had been preparing for an extended period.

The announcement of Nasrallah's assassination shifted Israeli discussions to the future of Hezbollah's leadership. Tel Aviv claimed it had successfully eliminated the party's leadership, except Sheikh Hashem Safieddinen, now seen as the leading candidate to succeed Nasrallah.

Israeli Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi, who authorized all the airstrikes on Beirut's southern suburbs, stated that operations were not yet finished. 

At the same time, Israel entered a state of heightened emergency across air, land, and sea.

Since Saturday morning, Israel has faced rocket barrages that extended from northern Israel to Tel Aviv. While the scale of the attacks was less severe than anticipated, reports indicated that Hezbollah still possessed a substantial arsenal of missiles and drones. This has led the Israeli military to prepare for the possibility of simultaneous attacks, including ground operations. 

Three reserve units were called into training on Saturday.

The critical question now is: What comes after Nasrallah? 

Will his assassination lead to a third Lebanon war or a broader regional war? Or will the fear of such scenarios prompt international actors to intensify negotiations, seeking a settlement between Lebanon and Israel that could put an end to what Israeli officials have described as a fierce and enduring conflict?