Could discontent among 5.6% of Democrats cost Harris in Pennsylvania?

Report by Rawad Taha, English adaptation by Karine Keuchkerian

Seven swing states in the U.S. presidential election will determine who reaches the White House: Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

Pennsylvania is significant, awarding the winner 19 electoral votes out of a total of 538, while a candidate needs 270 to win the presidency. 

Pennsylvania has the largest number of electoral votes among the seven states witnessing a heated battle between former U.S. President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.

According to the latest statistics from the 538 website, Trump leads Harris by just 0.2 points. This state is part of the "blue wall," which the Democratic Party has not lost since 1992, except in 2016, when Trump won it by 0.72%, or approximately 44,000 votes.

In 2020, Joe Biden and the Democratic Party regained this "blue stronghold" by increasing voter turnout from 71% to 77% and winning by nearly 1%.

There is no precise information on the number of Lebanese and Arab voters in Pennsylvania or the extent to which the wars in Lebanon and Gaza will influence election results. 

However, it is noteworthy that more than 60,000 Democratic voters cast protest votes in the Democratic primary, representing 5.6% of the total Democratic Party in the state. This protest vote was a reaction to the performance of the Biden-Harris Administration regarding the situations in Gaza and Lebanon.

Who will these 5.6% of Democrats vote for, and could a lack of support from some of them cost Harris the election?