Gas race: New maritime talks could shift Lebanon's offshore energy future

Report by Yazbek Wehbe, English adaptation by Yasmine Jaroudi  

For over 15 years, countries bordering the Eastern Mediterranean have competed to explore and extract offshore gas and oil. 

Global powers, eager to tap into this energy-rich region, have sent envoys and exerted economic pressure to secure stakes in exploration, investment, and eventual export. 

Lebanon, long seen as a potential player, has lagged, hindered by political obstacles and a lack of confirmed commercial gas discoveries in its initial offshore exploration blocks, particularly Blocks 4 and 9.

Despite the setbacks, recent data suggests the region holds immense promise. 

A U.S. report estimates that the Eastern Mediterranean contains roughly 3.5 trillion cubic meters of natural gas, nearly a quarter of which may lie within Lebanon's maritime zone.

In a renewed push, the Lebanese government last week formed a committee chaired by Public Works and Transport Minister Fayez Rasamny to resume maritime border negotiations with Cyprus over Lebanon's southern sea boundary. 

The committee is expected to meet again midweek to finalize the demarcation swiftly. Sources say the new median point under consideration could grant Lebanon an additional 2,500 square kilometers of maritime territory, significantly expanding its share from the 2007 agreement.

According to LBCI, a Cypriot technical delegation held a preliminary meeting with the Lebanese committee two days ago, with a follow-up session expected soon. A border demarcation expert coordinating with the Lebanese Army will also participate.

If the Cyprus deal is finalized, it would mark Lebanon's second major maritime agreement in recent years, following the U.S.-brokered accord with Israel in November 2022. 

However, a third and equally critical step remains: reaching a maritime border deal with Syria. 

Although sensitive, Lebanese officials are reportedly prepared to engage with Damascus at the appropriate time, with some technical channels already open between the two sides. The outcome could be influenced by regional dynamics involving Greek and Turkish Cyprus, as well as Ankara's growing role in Mediterranean energy politics.

Cyprus' renewed commitment to resolving the border dispute presents Lebanon with a strategic opportunity to expand its exploration area, potentially unlocking more commercially viable gas reserves. 

Yet, turning that opportunity into economic gains hinges on Lebanon's ability to maintain political and security stability, key prerequisites for attracting the investment needed to fuel its long-awaited economic recovery.