Will the French President, Emmanuel Macron, present the Lebanese issue at Amman's summit table? All indications are that he will, especially since the French President leaves no occasion and uses every meeting with international officials to raise Lebanon's profile. He undertook two visits in one week to Qatar. At the same time, French contacts with Saudi Arabia and Iran continued to explore access to a settlement formula in Lebanon. In Qatar, Macron, according to sources, also presented the Lebanese file, primarily since the Qatari capital Doha had hosted several Lebanese personalities.
Regional calm and local stalemate
It should be noted that the effectiveness of raising the Lebanese issue at the Amman summit remains linked to the level of Saudi and Iranian representation, especially since there are attempts between the two sides to hold a meeting or to have direct communication to renew dialogue between them, after months of interruption.
According to the level of representation, one can assess or predict the results, noting that the summit will look at multiple regional files, including the Iraqi, Syrian and Lebanese issues.
In the event of a Saudi-Iranian communication, Yemen's file will inevitably be present. The summit will take advantage of the region-wide armistice period based on Qatar's World Cup events. This means that many international actors seek to sustain this calm rather than go to an escalation reflected on the region's arenas as a whole.
Some diplomatic sources interested in the Lebanese issue expect that there will be a reflection of the summit on the situation in Lebanon, despite the current political stalemate in the Lebanese arena. First, the lack of any internal or external initiative and the obstruction of the course of dialogue that Speaker Nabih Berri was preparing for, as well as the discontinuation of meetings of the parliament, whether legislative or electoral, all while it is also not possible for the government to reconvene, following the Free Patriotic Movement's insistence on adopting the principle of roving decrees. Moreover, what brings further impasse to the Lebanese file is that holidays are around the corner and the departure of many officials abroad.
Time cap
Follow-up diplomatic sources add that there are attempts, particularly by the French, to establish a specific time cap leading to a political settlement in Lebanon, resulting in the election of a President and the formation of a new government. This time cap could be set between February and March. This time frame is seen by other sources as an optimistic perception of the situation. At the same time, some pessimists consider that the crisis will be prolonged further.
French and American insistence
According sources, French President Emmanuel Macron's decision not to visit Lebanon during Christmas had been decided before the UNIFIL incident. According to other sources, at the end of this month, the French Minister of Defense will visit the French forces operating within the UNIFIL in southern Lebanon, in a solidarity and supportive position for French soldiers, especially after the incident of the attack. The visit would reflect the French insistence on having an effective presence on the Lebanese scene. The French Minister is expected to give stances supporting the Lebanese army and continuing cooperation with it. This is also matched by the United States' interest in recent military assistance, along with the project to develop the naval military base in Beirut and Hamat's base.