There are currently no upcoming internal or external initiatives in the presidential file, as things need time to progress.
This article was originally published in, and translated from, Lebanese newspaper Nidaa Al Watan.
According to various diplomatic sources, the reality in Lebanon continues to be the most important issue at this level because no one, inside or outside, wants to repeat the "mistake" of the two-and-a-half-year presidential void.
These sources highlighted the disastrous effects of the presidential vacancy for Lebanon, noting that this experience resulted in an "unsuccessful deal."
There is a set of data and efforts that suggest the completion of the presidential election in less than six months, according to the same sources, given that all parties know that Lebanon has crossed the "red line," especially economically and that all countries have no interest in shaking its security stability.
Although there is no official announcement of a quadripartite meeting in Paris between the French, Americans, Saudis, and Qataris to discuss the Lebanese situation, and no ambassadors were informed of holding such a meeting soon, French President Emmanuel Macron and the French Foreign Ministry seriously consider the Lebanese file a priority.
Thus, efforts are underway to break the deadlock in the Lebanese arena through a comprehensive agreement between the US, France, and Saudi Arabia, possibly with Iran with a Qatari role. But the influential countries did not show serious interest in that, except France.
Based on Macron's experience following the Beirut Port blast, diplomatic sources said the French or Qatari influence would be minimal, if not nonexistent, without the US, Saudi Arabia, and Iran.
Both the meeting and the proposal made by the French ambassador failed to be fruitful. The Lebanese Foreign Ministry received diplomatic reports at that time claiming that the American effort lacked seriousness, making Macron's initiative a "soap bubble."
Likewise, now in the presidential file, France alone cannot achieve anything, especially since Washington is working according to a policy of "comprehensive settlement."
As a result, even if the quadripartite meeting in Paris were to take place, it would not be a decisive factor in the presidential file, especially since Saudi Arabia has not yet indicated a desire for any settlement and Iran will not take part due to the strained relations between Iran and France as a result of Iranian protests.
On the other hand, the Lebanese file will also be discussed in the Russian-Arab forum that will be held in Marrakech, Morocco, as it will be an occasion to emphasize the importance of the Lebanese presidential election.
Moreover, the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, the Russian diplomat Mikhail Bogdanov, and most of the foreign ministers of Arab countries will participate in the forum, whereby its main item will be Arab-Russian relations.
Additionally, Lavrov will be ready to meet any Arab minister who requests that. If the Caretaker Minister of Foreign Affairs Abdallah Bou Habib attends, he will meet with him and discuss the Lebanese file, including the presidential one.
According to diplomatic sources, Lebanon benefits from any forum or meeting of this kind, at least in terms of stabilizing its situation, despite Russia's role in the presidential case.
However, some political sources following the presidential file confirmed that there is nothing new, and Thursday's session will not witness any radical change leading to the election of a president.
The same sources underlined that the Americans and the French did not agree, just as the Saudis and the Qataris do not agree on the presidential file.
According to these sources, reaching an internal consensus to pick a new president is simpler than waiting for an international one, especially given that all Arab and Western countries repeat the same terms "reformist," "President," and "help yourselves so that we can help you."
Sources have also mentioned that Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri won't continue working the same way; instead, he'll take a "firm" stance in the coming weeks.
These sources explained that Berri would wait until the concerned parties and parliamentary blocs have agreed through the dialogue he insists on before acting. His calls for electoral sessions will continue, but they may take different forms.