Sometimes, a single event opens wide doors for significant transformations. Suddenly, humans sense an instinctual change and begin reassessing their affairs and calculations based on a new foundation.
This is the case for many in the region after the agreements that have started to reflect policies and outcomes between two axes, with Saudi Arabia, leading one side and Iran leading the other.
The international community is interested in Lebanon as a battleground that reflects aspects of the ongoing conflict, with the West, Israel, and some Arabs of America focusing on the issue of resistance within it.
The experiences of the past two decades have shown that the relationships established by the opponents of the resistance abroad with Lebanese parties remained within the framework of relying on these parties in the battle against the resistance.
In Lebanon today, some react with great urgency to what Saudi Arabia is doing in the region. However, there are also those who calmly and wisely assess the situation, knowing the ongoing battle.
The objectives remain unchanged, but there has been a real change in the methods and tools of the fight. The forces whose project was defeated in Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq are now forced to reconsider their tactics without any indication that they have decided to review their stance on the original issue, which is the ongoing battle against American and Western hegemony and the resistance against Israeli occupation in Palestine and other occupied territories.
According to this rule, Syria will remain in focus, just as it was after the US invasion of Iraq in 2003.
It cannot be ignored that the US military occupation still persists in some regions of Syria and that US forces not only support Syrian separatist groups but also engage in the systematic destruction of the remnants of the Syrian state in the areas under the influence of these groups.
They oversee the theft of the Syrian people's oil resources. The same applies to the US occupation in Iraq and its ongoing efforts to strengthen its presence in Jordan and expand the circle of normalization with the enemy in our Arab world.
Practically, we are still in the heart of the battle. Lebanon's weak presence at the Arab summit has nothing to do with the official situation, the presidential vacuum, the government's breakdown, or the absence of a clear foreign policy.
It is because Lebanon lacks even the minimum level of agreement on a strategy to deal with the ongoing transformations around us.
The country is filled with roadblocks that have replaced state institutions as centers of looting the people's resources, particularly the wealthy ones.
In this atmosphere, Paris initiates the third phase of its campaign for the Lebanese presidential elections.
After realizing that there is no room for elections without a settlement, such as the one proposed by Hezbollah, regarding a compromise between the presidency and the premiership, and after successfully maintaining relative neutrality towards Saudi Arabia in the ongoing battle without guarantees of not obstructing the settlement program, it moves on to the third phase, which aims at two things:
Firstly, a dialogue led directly by France with influential Christian forces and references due to its lack of confidence in the seriousness of the efforts of Frangieh's opponents to agree on a candidate and perhaps to preempt these attempts.
After inviting Sami Gemayel, the leader of the Kataeb Party, Paris made efforts to extend a similar invitation to the leader of the Lebanese Forces Party, Samir Geagea, who declined it, realizing that the agenda needed to be more suitable for him.
Paris continues to engage with the rest of the leadership, especially with Maronite Patriarch Bechara Rai and the leader of the Free Patriotic Movement, Gebran Bassil, in an effort to persuade the former to bless Frangieh's ascent to the presidency, urged the lawmakers to proceed with the elections, and attempt to convince the latter to support the settlement and vote for Frangieh or, at least, not obstruct the quorum by casting a blank ballot.
Secondly, efforts were made with Saudi Arabia itself and other Arab parties such as Qatar to ensure non-interference with Paris' initiatives.
The French hope for a development in the Saudi position from the stage of "negative neutrality" to "positive neutrality," which would open the doors for Walid Jumblatt, the leader of the Progressive Socialist Party, to devise a formula that grants Frangieh some votes from his bloc.
Similar to what his father, Kamal Jumblatt, did in 1970 when he divided the National Front bloc into two factions, with the ministers of the Progressive Socialist Party voting for Sleiman Frangieh, the grandfather, and the others giving their votes to Elias Sarkis.
France also hopes that the "positive neutrality" of Saudi Arabia will help sway the undecided bloc of Sunni deputies, independents, and "reformists" to support Frangieh and move forward with his candidacy.
However, some wonder how France is leading the battle to bring an ally of Hezbollah and Bashar al-Assad to the presidency, which contradicts its strategy against resistance and its barbaric campaign against the Syrian regime.
France was an active player, politically, militarily, security-wise, and in the media, in the war waged by armed groups against the Syrian regime.
But the reality indicates that the French seek to secure a share of the major settlements in the region.
They cannot build on the opposition forces in Syria and the resistance to achieve their goals, especially since their Arab relations are not good.
Saudi Arabia does not view the French leadership with respect. It does not see France as a center of power today, a situation similar to many countries in the Arab world that no longer see France as anything more than a merchant drooling over investment opportunities.
Once again, Lebanon appears to be at a crossroads. All the players in Lebanon can act realistically without compromising their principles but allowing for coexistence with the existing developments.
The alternative is either a gradual demise that eventually kills its owners or a suicidal attack that leads to their destruction!