Lebanese file in focus: Insights from the Jeddah Summit

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2023-05-29 | 03:18
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Lebanese file in focus: Insights from the Jeddah Summit
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Lebanese file in focus: Insights from the Jeddah Summit

During the Arab summit held in Jeddah on May 19, sources confirmed the meeting between Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

According to these sources, the Lebanese file was discussed in-depth and in detail, indicating that it was not only the sole priority of the meeting. The Saudi newspaper "Al Riyadh" published this information last Thursday before deleting the article from its website, which the March 14 alliance interpreted as a Saudi denial.
 
However, according to the sources, it was natural for the Lebanese file to be on the agenda of the meeting. Assad's visit was seen as a culmination of a process that began months ago, long before the Saudi-Iranian reconciliation agreement in Beijing on March 10.

Therefore, the focus of the meeting was on more than just enhancing bilateral relations, as these had already been finalized during the visit of the Saudi Foreign Minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, to Damascus in April. Discussions on these matters began at the end of 2021 between the head of the Syrian General Intelligence Directorate, Major General Hussam Luqa, and the head of Saudi Intelligence, Major General Khaled Al-Humaidan, in meetings held in Cairo and Riyadh.

Furthermore, the Saudi-Syrian discussions also encompassed other issues, including Saudi investments in reconstruction projects and security cooperation between the two countries to combat the smuggling of Captagon, which is manufactured in hundreds of laboratories located in areas outside the control of the Syrian army, as well as areas under its control, without implying that the Syrian government is complicit.

However, due to the severe siege on Syria and the contribution of this illicit trade to the influx of hard currency, along with the lack of Damascus' control over all areas, the security grip on smugglers who rely on the route through Jordan to enter the Kingdom has loosened. Syria has shown a positive attitude towards cooperation in this regard, as evident from the airstrikes carried out by Jordanian planes on May 8 on drug manufacturing and storage sites in the western countryside of Daraa and the eastern countryside of Suwayda, which were executed based on coordinates provided by the Syrian army.

The sources also point out that Assad did not participate in the summit to become its "star" and steal the spotlight. The mere return of Syria to the Arab League in a summit chaired by Saudi Arabia was enough to attract attention. According to the same sources, this participation was a "valuable" card played by the Syrian president to acknowledge the Saudi Crown Prince's Arab leadership at a time when the latter faces challenges to his "Gulf leadership" from the United Arab Emirates and Qatar with Turkish support. This explains the warm reception received by Assad. Such a valuable card in politics is akin to recognizing Syria's pivotal role in several regional issues.

Therefore, the meeting provided an opportunity to discuss regional matters of mutual interest, including the Lebanese file and the upcoming presidential elections, which were thoroughly examined and delved into finer details. This was reflected in Riyadh's retreat from the veto it previously placed on the presidency of Sleiman Frangieh, head of the Marada Movement, before lifting the veto and moving towards neutrality, bringing them closer to the French initiative while waiting for further progress.

In this context, the sources recall the phrase Hezbollah Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah uttered on the seventh anniversary of the martyrdom of Commander Mustafa Badreddine on May 12. Nasrallah called on the Lebanese to take advantage of Assad's invitation to attend the Arab summit in Jeddah, saying, "go (to Syria) before President Assad goes to the Riyadh summit; it is better for you."  
This statement was made days after the leader of the Lebanese Forces reassured that the Syrian delegation's representative at the summit would not cross the Foreign Minister.

On that day, Nasrallah extensively talked about the return of Syrian influence in regional issues, such as the Turkish presidential elections, which implies an impact on the presidential elections in Lebanon. He emphasized that Damascus "remained in its place and did not change its stance, strategy, or axis," concluding that "this is a political victory, and we are the ones who are congratulated."

Nasrallah's statement, which had certain implications, relied on clear information about the course of Saudi-Syrian negotiations and the evolving shift in Saudi Arabia's stance towards solving the problems with regional countries and recognizing the weight and role of Damascus.

Does this mean the "Syrian-Saudi" plan is returning?

"Not necessarily as we knew it before," the sources reply.

However, they point out that Saudi Arabia, which is reordering its regional priorities and seems more realistic in its assessment of global changes, may be ready to accept a more significant Syrian role in the region.

In the end, Sleiman Frangieh stands at the intersection of the allies of the Resistance axis; he is Hezbollah's candidate, which Iran trusts in its Lebanese choices, and a personal friend of Assad, which perhaps explains the early "congratulations" mentioned by Nasrallah in his speech on May 12.

As for the "friends" of the Kingdom and its "allies" in Lebanon, Riyadh will not be without means to persuade them of the necessities of the stage. In this context, attention is focused on the new information that Saudi Ambassador Walid Bukhari carries after his return to Beirut, in parallel with information indicating "progress in the Saudi stance from the no-veto stage on Frangieh to a supportive position that may reflect in a secret message to deputies who have not yet made up their minds, especially Sunni deputies."

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