Hezbollah and Amal Movement continue their fierce attack on the opposition's candidate and former Minister Jihad Azour ahead of Wednesday's session. The Amal-Hezbollah duo fears a breakthrough allowing Azour to win in the second round, so they will inevitably resort to obstructing the quorum.
Since Michel Aoun left Baabda Palace, Hezbollah has emphasized that their candidate, Sleiman Frangieh, the leader of the Marada Movement, is the only serious candidate. In contrast, the candidate of the sovereign forces, MP Michel Moawad, is a maneuvering candidate.
However, after the opposition and the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) agreed on Azour's candidacy, the electoral scene was overturned, revealing a new reality that angered the Amal-Hezbollah duo and exposed their game. Compared to Hezbollah's candidate, the opposition asserts its ability to gather more than 60 votes for Azour, who cannot exceed 50 votes at best. The opposition and the FPM are working on consolidating their ranks and not allowing any breaches, contrary to what Hezbollah and Parliament Speaker, Nabih Berri, are spreading.
Wednesday's session will be critical. If the Amal-Hezbollah duo resorts to obstructing the quorum, the presidential keyword will not be reached, and the democratic process will be undermined. The vacuum will be further extended, and sanctions may be imposed on the obstructers.
With the Amal-Hezbollah duo's insistence on Frangieh as the only serious candidate and considering Azour as a maneuvering candidate, several aspects contradict the claims of Hezbollah and the Amal Movement.
Regarding political calculations and numbers, Azour has the broadest Christian agreement on his candidacy, with the support of the Lebanese Forces, the FPM, the Kataeb Party, the Independence Movement, and many independent and Change Christian MPs. On the other hand, Frangieh lacks Christian support.
Which president can reach Baabda without Christian support? How will he govern? Who will support him if the primary component concerned with the presidential election is against him?
In the parliamentary battle, Azour has secured 60 votes so far, and the number will inevitably increase as more MPs and blocs declare their stance. This number will undoubtedly rise in the second round, surpassing the threshold of 65 votes easily. Meanwhile, the guaranteed votes for Frangieh are at most 44, and with persuasion, they may reach 50 votes. From this perspective, who is the serious candidate: Azour or Frangieh?
As for the religious authorities, particularly the Maronite Patriarchate, Azour's name has been present in the consensual lists of Bkerke from the beginning, and Maronite Cardinal Bechara Boutros al-Rahi blesses this consensus.
On the other hand, electing Frangieh in this manner would be a Christian setback that Bkerke cannot cover-up. Therefore, Frangieh will face a fierce campaign within his environment that will prevent him from reaching the presidency.
Regionally and internationally, Saudi Arabia did not object to the election of Azour, while it did not press for the election of Frangieh. The Kingdom made it clear to allies and adversaries that it does not exercise a veto on anyone but urges them to make a good choice. Frangieh would have reached the presidency if he secured Saudi and regional support.
Thus, electing a president not accepted by the international and Arab community would significantly setback the Lebanese people and prolong the crisis.
Moreover, Frangieh's lack of a program and action plan is the most crucial part, while businessmen close to him have been included in US sanction lists. On the other hand, Azour comes from an economic background in Lebanon's most challenging phase and can negotiate with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the United States, and Arab countries. Frangieh can only communicate with Damascus, Tehran, and his new ally, French President Emmanuel Macron.
All these factors indicate a serious candidate and one who does not have a chance to reach the presidency. Therefore, the opposition calls for seizing the moment, supporting Azour's candidacy, and not maneuvering, as the opportunity for salvation is available unless there is a plan to overthrow all the country's institutions.